One day ahead of the jobs report, Gallup comes out with a negative preview of its own.
We’ve posted the announcement below.
Note that there are all kinds of reasons to think that the November number could be wonky, most notably Superstorm Sandy, which will impact the numbers in some manner or another. Other labour market indicators have been mixed. For example, initial claims have been coming down nicely after the initial Sandy-related spike. Monthly layoffs surged, but that’s only because of the Hostess liquidation. ADP came in nicely in line.
As for tomorrow’s official government number, Non-Farm Payrolls are expected at 86,000 and unemployment is expected to stay flat at 7.9 per cent.
Now here’s Gallup’s report.
WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, was 7.8% for the month of November, up significantly from 7.0% for October. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 8.3%, nearly a one-point increase over October’s rate.
These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews, conducted by landline and cell phone, with approximately 30,000 Americans throughout the month — 67.2% of whom are active in the workforce. Gallup calculates a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate by applying the adjustment factor the government used for the same month in the previous year. Last year, the government adjusted the November rate upward by 0.5 percentage points.
It is unclear what caused the increase in the unemployment rate in November, although some experts speculate that it was caused by jobs lost as a result of superstorm Sandy. It is also possible that lackluster holiday hiring is to blame.
Although the increase in the unadjusted rate in November is a sharp contrast to the 0.9-point decline seen in October, November’s 7.8% rate is still tied for the second-best unadjusted unemployment monthly reading of 2012. However, on an adjusted basis, November’s rate is the highest reading in six months. Looking at year-to-year comparisons, seasonally adjusted unemployment is down from 8.9% in November 2011.