At Politico’s Playbook breakfast on Tuesday, Obama campaign manager Jim Messina fired off on Gallup and other public polling that turned out to be inaccurate during the 2012 campaign.He was notably harsh on Gallup, the firm the Obama team wasn’t shy about speaking out against during the campaign.
“Gallup has been wrong repeatedly in presidential elections for a long time,” Messina said.
Messina also singled out Suffolk University’s polling team, which stopped polling in Florida and Virginia because it determined Mitt Romney would carry the states. President Obama, of course, ended up winning both.
Messina said Gallup had been correct only once in the past six elections. It’s not exactly clear what he was referring to, but Gallup has failed to predict the popular vote winner in three of the past four elections — not five of the last six. (In 2004, it predicted a tie between George W. Bush and John Kerry.)
Messina said public polling is “broken” — and his campaign knew it because it had pollsters showing differing results in swing states. As an example, he asked the audience how many of them had landlines. No hands went up.
Here’s video of Messina explaining why the polls got it wrong:
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