Democrats Are Crushing Republicans In Arizona And Look Likely To Hold Onto Gabby Giffords' Seat

Public Policy Polling is out with a new survey this morning that shows Democrats in a commanding position to keep hold of Gabrielle Giffords‘ seat in the House of Representatives. 

Leading up to the Arizona special election on Tuesday to fill Giffords’ seat, Democrat Ron Barber has a double-digit lead over Republican Jesse Kelly.

Arizona special election

Photo: Public Policy Polling

Probably an even worse number for Kelly is the percentage of people that told PPP that they have already voted in the election. 50-seven per cent of respondents said they had already cast a ballot. And more people who planned to vote on Election Day said they would vote Barber. 

The poll oversamples Democrats slightly — 42 per cent to 36 per cent. But by the same token, 40 per cent of respondents were either “somewhat” or “very” conservative, compared with 30 per cent “somewhat” or “very” liberal.

Giffords was shot in the head in January 2011 and critically injured. One year later and partially recovered from the wounds, she said she would resign from Congress to focus on a full recovery.

Barber, the Democrat, is a former Giffords aide. Kelly is a tea party favourite who beat three other Republican candidates in an April primary. Kelly lost to Giffords in 2010 by a razor-thin margin — 48.8 per cent to 47.3 per cent.

These favorability numbers tell the story:

Arizona special election

Photo: Public Policy Polling

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