The ruble keeps getting stronger -- here's what's happening in FX

Good morning!

The Russian ruble just keeps getting strong as Brent crude is up around six-month highs.

The ruble is up 0.7% at 64.9978 per dollar as of 7:44 a.m. ET. Meanwhile, Brent crude is up by 2.1% at $48.85 per barrel.

Notably, a team of Goldman Sachs analysts led by Damien Courvalin thinks that oil’s oversupply might be over.

“The physical rebalancing of the oil market has finally started. While supply and demand surprised to the upside commensurately in 1Q16, leaving the market oversupplied by 1.4 mb/d, we believe the market has likely shifted into deficit in May,” the team wrote in a note to clients.

They also cited strong demand and a sharp decline in production as reasons for the rebalancing.

As for the rest of the world, here’s the scoreboard:

  • The Indian rupee is stronger by 0.3% at 66.806 per dollar after Indian wholesale price inflation surged sharply in April, and finally returned to positive territory. WPI inflation came in at up 0.3% year-over-year, a huge surge from the 0.9% drop year-over-year in March. “…we think it will accelerate further over the coming months,” wrote Capital Economics’ Shilan Shah in a note to clients.
  • The Thai baht is stronger by 0.2% at 35.380 after the latest data showed that the economy grew by 3.2% in the first quarter compared to a year earlier, above economists expectations. “Thailand’s economy got off to a solid start to 2016, but high household debt and continued political uncertainty are likely to drag down growth again over the coming quarters,” argued Capital Economics’ Krystal Tan in a note to clients after the data crossed.
  • The dollar index is little changed at 94.55 ahead of a couple of data points, including Empire State Manufacturing and the NAHB Housing Market Index.

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