The dollar is climbing

The dollar is climbing.

The US dollar index is up by 0.3% at 94.42 as of 6:33 a.m. ET.

Notably, on Thursday, Nautilus Investment Research’s Tom Leveroni and Shourui Tian argued that the dollar is “poised to signal a major long-term trend change this week.”

Leveroni and Tian note that in 12 of the 14 times the US Dollar Index crossed below its two-year (100-week) moving average, the index fell three months later.

The index crossed below its 100-week moving average on Tuesday, according to data from Investing.com.

As for the rest of the world, here’s the scoreboard as of 6:47 a.m. ET:

  • The Japanese yen is down by 0.3% at 100.20 per dollar. “Our base case is that the recent strengthening of the yen will result in a further moderation in inflation excluding fresh food and energy towards zero,” argued Capital Economics’ Marcel Thieliant in commentary. “However, the magnitude of recent exchange rate movements has been so large that we can’t exclude a brief return to negative underlying inflation. For the Bank of Japan, this can only add pressure to do more.”
  • The Russian ruble is down by 0.5% at 63.9508 per dollar. Bloomberg’s Ksenia Galouchko noted that the currency’s slide comes amid Friday’s slight dip in oil prices, as well as growing investor concern over the tensions with Ukraine.
  • The euro is down by 0.3% at 1.1324 against the dollar. Earlier, German PPI surprised on the upside, rising 0.2% month-over-month in July, above estimates of 0.1%.
  • The British pound is down by 0.3% at 1.3136 against the dollar.

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