The US dollar is rallying

dollar is rallying, and is now at its best level since January.

The US dollar index is up by 0.7% at 99.74 as of 7:35 a.m. ET.

It briefly poked through 100.00 earlier in the morning for the first time since December, and is up against most major and emerging market currencies.

Fed fund futures data compiled by Bloomberg shows an 84% probability the Fed will raise its benchmark interest rate 25 bps at its upcoming meeting.

“It is possible that a strong USD will be worn by the coming administration as a badge of honour — a signal of global confidence in ‘Trumpism’. Much more likely, because it is more consistent with trade and manufacturing objectives, policymakers will wish to keep USD strength in check,” wrote Alan Ruskin, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, in a note to clients.

“This is unlikely to translate into an overt attempt to drive the USD weaker. In a world where the US is thinking about pump-priming its full employment economy, the strong USD would need to play a vital role in offsetting inflationary pressures, or the US bond market could go into a tailspin,” he added.


As for the rest of the world, here’s the scoreboard as of 7:38 a.m. ET:

  • The Japanese yen is down by 1.1% at 107.89 per dollar, after earlier hovering around its lowest level since June. Data released showed that the Japanese economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 2.2% in the third quarter, above the 0.9% growth economists were forecasting. 
  • The euro is down by 0.8% at 1.0766 against the dollar after dipping as low as 1.0730 in ate-Asian trade. Earlier, data showed that industrial production in the eurozone rose 1.2% year-over-year in September, above expectations of 1.0%. Separately, Italian CPI disappointed, falling 0.1% mont-over-month in October, compared to expectations of 0.0%.
  • The Chinese yuan is down by 0.5% at 6.8536 against the dollar — a level last seen in 2008. But “it is more of a dollar story than a yuan story,” according to Marc Chandler, the global head of currency strategy, at Brown Brothers Harriman. “Since the eve of the US election, the yuan has fared better than most in the region, falling almost 1%. Only the pegged Hong Kong dollar and the Indian rupee has fared better (and Indian markets are closed today for a national holiday). The offshore yuan has not fallen as much as the onshore yuan.”
  • The Russian ruble is down by 0.8% at 66.2597 per dollar, while Brent crude oil is down by 1.0% at $44.29 per barrel.
  • The British pound is down by 0.5% at 1.2527 against the dollar.

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