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Goldman is out with a note this morning on the debt ceiling, and unfortunately, even though the firm secretly controls the world, it really doesn’t know anymore on what’s going to happen than anyone else.This is interesting though. Some dates on August 2 and after. It presumes that the ceiling isn’t raised, but that the Treasury prioritizes payments in some way.
- August 2: Treasury exhausts financing options. August 2 is the last day that the Treasury seems likely to be able to make all of its scheduled payments under the current borrowing limit.
- August 3: Social security payments. Roughly $23 billion in Social Security payments are scheduled to be made on August 3, as they are made on the first Wednesday of every month. This, along with other spending that might be delayed, could provide political motivation to reach an agreement on at least a short-term extension.
- August 3: Treasury quarterly refunding announcement. The Treasury is expected to announce its financing plans, as it does each quarter.
- August 9-11: 3-year note, 10-year note, and 30-year bond auctions. These auctions settle the same day as the Treasury coupon payment, on August 15.
- August 15: Treasury coupon payment. Treasury must make around $30 billion in payments to holders of securities. The scheduled payments are expected to exceed revenues that day, but in the very unlikely event that the debt limit hasn’t been increased by this point, it is likely that the Treasury would have conserved cash in order to make the payment.