Everyone knows that the biggest, most exciting datapoint in all of economics is the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls Report AKA The Jobs Report.
Why is this report so hotly anticipated each month? Basically because it’s fresh data on the most salient issue to the public, and because it’s not so easily predictable. Analysts are frequently wildly off in their guesses. And also because for politics, arguably, jobs is the most important thing.
So far jobs week has been pretty good. The ADP private payrolls survey came in better than expected at 110K.
Meanwhile, this week’s initial claims number was very good, and confirmed a generally improving trend.
So what should you look for?
Here’s the Bloomberg consensus numbers:
- Change in non-farm payrolls: +95K
- Change in private payrolls +125K
- Change in manufacturing payrolls +2K
- Unemployment Rate: 9.1%
- Average Hourly Earnings Growth (mum): 0.2%
- Average Weekly Hours All Employees: 34.3
Obviously we’ll be live covering the number, well before it comes out at 8:30 AM.