Don't Get Too Excited About Next Week's Jobs Report Yet


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Next Friday comes the non-Farm payrolls report for June.The data has looked just a touch better lately, but don’t uncork the champagne.

From Deutsche Bank:

With Greek sovereign debt concerns receding, at least in the immediate term, the financial market focus is due to return to the US economic data. In particular, the labour market data are critical to the outlook, so the monthly employment report will take centre stage next week when data for June are released. While a solid June employment report would go a long way toward improving economic confidence among households and businesses, it appears unlikely based on a modest decline in jobless claims, mixed production survey outcomes and sagging consumer confidence. As we highlight in the accompanying commentary, we anticipate a partial recovery in the pace of hiring and a reversal in the recent unemployment rate trend. Specifically, we project a +100k increase in nonfarm payrolls and a 0.1% decline in the unemployment rate to 9.0%, although we will revisit our payroll forecast following the results of the ADP survey on Thursday.

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