Centrist Emmanual Macron and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen are set square off in the second round of the French Presidential election on Sunday.
People betting on the outcome — on sports betting websites, and in currency and bond markets — seem to be pretty sure that Macron will win.
Macron, who saw his lead in a poll conducted by Elable extend to 62% to Le Pen’s 38%, has attracted about 76% of all bets, totaling $US1.1 million, according to Sportsbet.com.au. A winning bet on Macron will pay out $US1.11 for every $US1 wagered. Previously those bets were paying out $US1.14.
Of course, people were similarly sure that a pro-Europe vote in the U.K., just before the country chose instead to exit the union, and pollsters were predicting President Donald Trump would lose the US election. In this case, those willing to bet against the grain would get a $US7 payout for every $US1 wagered on a Le Pen victory at Sportsbet.com.
It’s not just the polls and betting markets that are pointing to a Macron win. The spread between the French 10-year yield and the German 10-year yield is narrowing, a sign that traders believe Macron will win and France will stay on the euro.
During her campaign, Le Pen said she would ask European leaders and the European Central Bank to replace the euro with a basket of new national currencies, in effect breaking up the single currency.
“The euro is not a currency,” Le Pen said in February. “It is a political weapon to force countries to implement the policies decided by the [European Union] and keep them on a leash.
Currency traders are also seemingly on board with a Macron win. The euro is near 1.0970 on Friday, its highest level in six months.