Forrester: E-Commerce In For A Tough Year, But Still Grabbing Share From Offline Sales

E-commerce cooled in 2008 from 2007, and it’s only going to get worse this year, says Forrester.

But offline retail is even worse. And even as e-commerce growth slows, online sites will continue to take market share from brick-and-mortar outlets.

WSJ: According to a new report by Forrester Research, ecommerce sales (beyond travel) are likely to grow 11% to $156 billion in 2009. That marks a slowdown from 13% growth last year and 18% in 2007. The major factor contributing to the pace shift is, of course, declining consumer confidence.

But ecommerce’s slowed pace is still far better than the National Retail Federation’s forecasted 0.5% drop in overall retail sales this year.

That means ecommerce is stealing market share from traditional retail – and fast. By Forrester’s estimates, in 2008 ecommerce accounted for 5% of all retail sales (excluding cars, travel and prescription drugs). In 2012, Forrester thinks ecommerce could have an 8% share.

Despite the (relatively) positive news, Forrester does say e-commerce growth it slowing. The group predicts a bump from 2009’s 11% growth to 13% in 2010, but then trailing to 10% in 2010, 9% in 2011, and 8% in 2012.

See Also:
E-Commerce Growth Crashing To A Halt
E-Commerce Picking Up In December After Terrible November

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