A Super-Contrarian Take On The Jobs Report

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We’re obviously very excited and eager to see today’s jobs report number, but not everyone is.In his latest note, BTIG’s Dan Greenhaus basically calls it an irrelevant snooze:

The monthly nonfarm payroll report is arguably the most important economic indicators for a host of market watchers. We have long tried to change this perception by reminding people that the initial report bears very little resemblance to the level of job creation or destruction that actually occurred and is eventually reported. For instance, in July 2008, the government originally reported job losses of just 51K. After subsequent revisions, we now know that the economy lost 231K jobs that month. That hardly makes for a reliable report.

That argument aside, we recently said something on CNBC that engendered some internal and external discussion. In the interview, we commented that in some ways, the monthly employment report, the “holy grail” of macroeconomic indicators, has become largely irrelevant. To be clear, we know the economy is weak, we know it’s barely growing and thus a shocking number on the order of 300K jobs created this month or next is virtually impossible.

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