Forex Technical and Fundamental Analysis for the Week of September 19, 2011

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for the Week of September 19, 2011

The previous candle in the EUR/USDweekly chart was horrendous, and although we did in fact get a bounce from the fall this past week, it must be said that resistance came into the market just where support was the previous low on the weekly chart. The falling at the end of the week shows that this pair will more than likely have trouble rising, and as such we still feel selling rallies at this point is going to be the way to go.

EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis for the Week of September 19, 2011

The EUR/USD ended a hectic week in which it managed to sustain the heavy pessimism and held against rising bets for Greek default where support from the ECB and EU officials offset the pressure on the euro to help it regain some losses. In the week ahead the focus will remain on the debt crisis developments and the pace of slowing growth in the euro area and the United States which will guide the sentiment amid the lack of major fundamentals as the only major highlight will be the FOMC decision. The market will continue to react to what the weekend summit of EU finance chiefs come to, especially after the end of the week Juncker assured to markets that a decision on Greece is not likely as he said the next tranche of last year’s bailout will be decided on in October, denying much of the updates needed. The ECB expanded the dollar supply to European banks in the coordinated action announced last Thursday and the market was somewhat supported with the swift reaction from officials, yet this week investors will assess how much the support will last as the overall weak framework for the debt crisis and growth remain the weigh on the market. Volatility and fluctuations will continue with investors now turning their eyes to the Federal Reserve and the FOMC decision, where steady rates are taken for granted yet the focus is on other measures to be adopted to stimulate faltering growth in the world’s largest economy. We see heavy volatility and the optimism and EUR/USD gains might only extend if the measures announced by the feds were convincing to sustain the relief and expectations that growth will recovery with the ongoing support. Other news from the euro area and the U.S. economy to affect the pair this week: Monday September 19: The euro area will start the week with Construction Output for July at 09:00 GMT after the reported 1.8% drop in June. Tuesday September 20: Germany will start the day at 06:00 GMT with August Producer Price index which is expected to ease to 0.1% following 0.7% rise while on the year to rise to 6.0% following 5.8%. Germany will continue with the ZEW survey for September at 09:00 GMT where the Current Situation Index is expected to slump to 37.5 from 53.5 while Economic Sentiment Index to fall deeper to -40.0 from -37.6. The Zew Economic Sentiment for September is due at 09:00 GMT after it slumped to -40.0 in August amid the deepening crisis in Europe. The United States will start the week with the Housing Starts for August at 12:30 GMT which is expected to ease to 590 thousand from 604 thousand. Building Permits are also expected with 1.8% drop to 590 thousand from 597 thousand the previous month. Wednesday September 21: The U.S. existing home sales for August will start the FOMC day at 14:00 GMT which is expected with 1.7% rebound to 4.75 million from 4.67 million. Wednesday will surely be dedicated to the Federal Reserve with eyes on the Federal Open Market Committee with the decision due 18:15 GMT. The FOMC is expected to keep rates at their historic low near zero while investors await the range of options to be discussed to ease the economic slump and support the recovery according to Bernanke’s comments earlier about the possibility for further monetary easing from the Feds. Thursday September 22: Germany will start the day at 07:30 with the flash PMI estimate for September where the Manufacturing PMI is expected to slow to 50.5 from 50.9 and the Services PMI to fall to 50.5 from 51.1. The euro area will report the flash PMI index for September at 08:00 GMT, where the manufacturing PMI is expected to contract at the same pace at 49.0 while the PMI services to drop further to 51.0 from 51.5. Data will continue at 09:00 GMT with the Industrial New Orders index for July after the reported 0.7% drop in June. The United States will release the weekly jobless claims at 12:30 GMT after unexpectedly rising last week by 428 thousand. The leading indicators will be due at 14:00 GMT for August, where the index is expected to drop to 0.1% from the previous 0.5%. Friday September 23: No data is queued for release from the euro area or the U.S. economy which will leave trading influenced by the prevailing market sentiment.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis for the Week of September 19, 2011

The AUD/USDis range bound, much like its cousin the Kiwi dollar. However, the weekly candle we just printed looks very strong as it is a hammer, and the lows are above the previous low. (Also a hammer) This looks bullish overall, but the 1.08 level should continue to pressure to the downside. It looks like the overall move is up – but this pair could be choppy to say the least. We don’t’ sell this pair until we close well under parity on the daily charts.

AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis for the Week of September 19, 2011

The Australian currency (Aussie) dropped against the dollar as Australian economy faces external obstacles (European debt crisis and the US crisis) which kept the sentiment negative and the outlook for growth weak, yet with the improvement in the sentiment the pair started to recover to the end of the week. Aussie declined to the lowest level in more than three weeks versus the greenback on concern the Greek crisis may escalate, prompting investors to sell higher yielding currencies. The Australian economy reported that the trade surplus narrowed slightly in July from a month earlier, where the nation’s exports exceeded imports by A$1.83 billion. On the other hand, the President of RBA, Mr. Stevens said “households watching global and local events may continue their precautionary behaviour for longer than otherwise and help weaken demand compared with the central bank’s August forecasts.” This week, we can see the AUD/USD pair will move according to the market sentiment, while the market is waiting the RBA’s minutes and the FOMC decision that will define the sentiment and the direction for the pair on whether the Feds will take action to support growth or disappoint investors. Major highlights for this week that will affect the AUD/USD pair’s trading Monday September 19: On Monday at 14:00 GMT, theU.S.economy will release the NAHB Housing Market Index for the month of September, where the expectations are for the index to hold steady at 15. Tuesday September 20: The Australian economy will start the week with the RBA’s minutes for the September meeting at 01:30 GMT, which will have a heavy impact on the market’s movements. TheU.S.economy will start the day at 12:30 GMT, where the housing starts index for August which is expected with a drop of 2.3% to come at 590 thousands from 604 thousands. The building permits for August are also expected with 1.8% to 590 thousand from 597 thousand. Wednesday September 21: AUD consumer inflation expectations index for September is due 01:00 GMT after rising by 2.7%. TheU.S.existing home sales for August will released at 14:00 GMT, which is expected with 1.7% rebound to 4.75 million from 4.67 million. At 18:15 GMT, the Federal Reserve Bank will release its Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision which expected to stay at 0.25% as eyes are on the Feds decision on new stimulus measures to revive the faltering recovery. Thursday September 22: At 12:30 GMT, the U.S. economy will issue its weekly initial claims numbers, where the number of people filing for first-time claims for the state unemployment insurance increased 428 thousand last week. TheU.S.leading indicators for August will due at 14:00 GMT where it’s expected to come at 0.1% from the previous 0.5%. Friday September 23: At 00:00 GMT,Australia is to issue its conference board leading index for July after the drop reported in June to -0.8%. Friday has no data from theU.S.economy and the pair’s movement is expected to rely on the market sentiment.

EUR/CHF Technical Analysis for the Week of September 19, 2011

EUR/CHF had a very quiet week this past week, and the 1.20 “line in the sand” that the Swiss National Bank has announced has held intact for a week now. The area should be supportive for the time being, and it makes selling this pair almost impossible. The SNB has said that it is willing to buy as much foreign currency as is needed to push this pair and the Franc in general down in value. Because of this – EUR/CHF can only be bought at this point. However, until the Europeans get their act together with their debt crisis, this pair might just sit here.

EUR/CHF Weekly Fundamental Analysis for the Week of September 19, 2011

The EUR/CHF ended marginally flat last week! The pair has lost all the momentum after the SNB intervention and the appeal for traders is no longer strong which leaves the pair hovering around 1.20 new grounds. The EUR/CHF continued to trade within a limited range last week despite the heavy data and prevailing focus on the euro area debt crisis. The SNB decision last week did not influence trading and this week we expect the same trading range to be seen for the pair. Investors are still focused on the developments in the euro area and even if pessimism is the main sentiment, it will not affect the franc with haven demand as the SNB stated their readiness to defend the new 1.20 floor set, which keeps the pair more biased to the upside than to the downside. This week the light load of data from the euro area and Switzerland will deprive the pair as well from heavy momentum, especially as the debt debate last week and the SNB decision failed to move the pair and accordingly the data is not likely to add anything to traders. The focus remains on Greece and the debt crisis as the EU finance chiefs end their Poland meeting over the weekend on hopes that a new breakthrough is seen in the means to resolve the crisis with more signs of unity among the leaders that might have some upside support for the euro and help the pair breakout of its dull range! Other news from the euro area and the Swiss economy to affect the pair this week: Monday September 19: The euro area will start the week with Construction Output for July at 09:00 GMT after the reported 1.8% drop in June. Tuesday September 20: Switzerland will start the day at 06:00 GMT with the August Trade figures after the reported surplus of 2.83 billion francs in July. The Zew Economic Sentiment for September is due at 09:00 GMT after it slumped to -40.0 in August amid the deepening crisis in Europe. Wednesday September 21: At 07:00 GMT Swiss M3 Money Supply for August is due after the reported 5.9% rise in July.       Thursday September 22: The euro area will report the flash PMI index for September at 08:00 GMT, where the manufacturing PMI is expected to contract at the same pace at 49.0 while the PMI services to drop further to 51.0 from 51.5. Data will continue at 09:00 GMT with the Industrial New Orders index for July after the reported 0.7% drop in June. Friday September 23: No data is queued for release from the euro area or Switzerland which will leave the pair biased in line with the prevailing sentiment.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis for the Week of September 19, 2011

The NZD/USD pairlooks very range bound as the pair seems to be stuck between 0.81 and 0.86. The pair is highly sensitive to global risk taking, and will certainly suffer when it wanes. Of course, in these types of markets (meaning the global markets and their issues) anything can happen. Headline risks out of Europe might actually push this pair around more than the fundamentals in New Zealand for the time being. We are fairly ambivalent about this pair because of the fairly tight range and the risk involved in owning it.

NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis for the Week of September 19, 2011

The market continues its downside movement as global economic growth falters, risk aversion was predominant most of the week as the European crisis continued to escalate, damping the demand for higher-yielding currencies. The New Zealand’s currency is one of the most currencies affected by the global crisis, so the Kiwi fell against greenback as concern that Greece may default sapped demand for higher-yielding and growth related assets. Moreover, Kiwi has continued its downside trend versus the dollar after the NZ’s economy reported that its manufacturing volumes dipped for the first time in three quarters and food prices declined. On the other hand, the NZ will extend holding interest rates until next year as the global economy faces many crises that threaten growth. However, the Bank’s governor Mr. Allan Bollard said that increasing global risks are threatening the nation’s exports which are the main pillar for the economy. Major highlights for this week that will affect the NZD/USD pair’s trading Monday September 19: At 22:00 GMT (Sunday), New Zealand will release the Westpac NZ consumer confidence index for the third quarter that has a medium effect on the Kiwi’s movements against the majors. At 22:30 GMT (Sunday) New Zealand will released the performance services index for August after it reached 54.5 in July. On Monday at 14:00 GMT, the U.S. economy will release the NAHB Housing Market Index for the month of September, where the expectations are for the index to hold steady at 15. Tuesday September 20: New Zealand economy continues the important data with the current account for the second quarter where the deficit is expected to widen to NZ$0.671 billion from NZ$0.097 billion. The U.S. economy will start the day at 12:30 GMT, where the housing starts index for August which is expected with a drop of 2.3% to come at 590 thousands from 604 thousands. The building permits for August are also expected with 1.8% to 590 thousand from 597 thousand. Wednesday September 21: NZD credit card spending S.A. for August is due at 03:00 GMT following July’s 1.0% rise. The U.S. existing home sales for August will released at 14:00 GMT, which is expected with 1.7% rebound to 4.75 million from 4.67 million. At 18:15 GMT, the Federal Reserve Bank will release its Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision which expected to stay at 0.25% as eyes are on the Feds decision on new stimulus measures to revive the faltering recovery. Thursday September 22: On Thursday at 22:45 GMT (Wednesday), the market awaits the gross domestic product (GDP) for the three months through June, where growth is expected to have slowed on the quarter to 0.5% from 0.8% the first three months and on the year the GDP to rise 1.7% after 1.4% in the first quarter. At 12:30 GMT, the U.S. economy will issue its weekly initial claims numbers, where the number of people filing for first-time claims for the state unemployment insurance increased 428 thousand last week. The U.S. leading indicators for August will due at 14:00 GMT where it’s expected to come at 0.1% from the previous 0.5%. Friday September 23: Friday has no data from New Zealand and the U.S. and the pair’s movement is expected to rely on the market sentiment.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis for the Week of September 19, 2011

USD/JPYfell this week, but remains floating above the 76 handle. The area is considered to be a “line in the sand” for the Bank of Japan as they are willing to jump in and sell the JPY against anything that appreciates far too much. The BoJ is actively trying to sell the Yen in order to keep the value down, and they have mentioned this area more than once in the news. In fact, there are rumours in the marketplace about BoJ clandestine interventions at this level. No matter the truth, we can only buy – but there doesn’t seem to be much of a buy signal at this point for the long-term investor.

USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis for the Week of September 19, 2011

The USD/JPY pair dropped last week and returned to its post-war levels, where financial markets lost the confidence once again as the debt crisis continued to deepen. Risk aversion returned to control the FX market as investors increased demand for low yielding currencies. The instability in equities across the board market and the pessimistic developments in the Eurozone drove investors to sell-off higher yielding currencies, shifting their investments to safer currencies. The latest BOJ meeting did not give investors what they really want, as the central bank kept interest rates, asset-purchase program and credit-loan program unchanged, without mentioning any further measures or expansion in the current stimulus package. The USD/JPY pair is expected to stay at its lowest level, as investors shifted their investments to lower yielding assets amid the uncertainty over the outlook. This week the main focus will be the FOMC decision and whether the Feds will adopt new stimulus measures to ease the fears and unwind the risk aversion evident in the market that might push the yen to weaken once again. Major highlights for this week that will affect the USD/JPY pair’s trading: Monday September 19: On Monday at 14:00 GMT, the U.S. economy will release the NAHB Housing Market Index for the month of September, where the expectations are for the index to hold steady at 15. Tuesday September 20: The Japanese economy will release the Coincident Index final reading for July at 05:00 GMT, where the previous reading showed a rise of 109.0. On the other hand, the final reading of Leading Index for July had a prior reading of 106.0. The U.S. economy will start the day at 12:30 GMT, where the housing starts index for August which is expected with a drop of 2.3% to come at 590 thousands from 604 thousands. The building permits for August are also expected with 1.8% to 590 thousand from 597 thousand. Wednesday September 21: On Wednesday at 23:50 GMT (Tuesday),Japan will issue merchandise trade balance total for August, where the previous reading showed a surplus of 72.5 billion yen while it is expected to show a deficit of 300.0 billion yen. The adjusted merchandise trade balance for August is expected to show a deficit of 22.1 billion yen from the previous deficit of 130.5 billon yen. At 04:30 GMT Japan will release All Industry Activity Index for July, where it’s expected to come at 0.5% from the previous 2.3%. The U.S. existing home sales for August will released at 14:00 GMT, which is expected with 1.7% rebound to 4.75 million from 4.67 million. At 18:15 GMT, the Federal Reserve Bank will release its Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision which expected to stay at 0.25% as eyes are on the Feds decision on new stimulus measures to revive the faltering recovery. Thursday September 22: At 12:30 GMT, the U.S. economy will issue its weekly initial claims numbers, where the number of people filing for first-time claims for the state unemployment insurance increased 428 thousand last week. The U.S. leading indicators for August will due at 14:00 GMT where it’s expected to come at 0.1% from the previous 0.5%. Friday September 23: Friday has no data from Japan and the U.S. and the pair’s movement is expected to rely on the market sentiment.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis for the Week of September 19, 2011

The GBP/USD pair fell this week, and formed a bit of a hammer at the end. The hammer isn’t the buy signal though, as the daily chart also shows massive resistance at the 1.60 level. The pair looks like it wants to fall, and we have made another lower low. The world is buying the USD, and the UK is massively exposed to the EU banking and debt markets. The pair is a “sell only” pair at this point, and we think that the rallies or bumps that we see could be sold. For a long-term perspective, we think the 1.53 or so could be a target – although we think the movement could be choppy at best.

GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis for the Week of September 19, 2011

The GBP/USD showed decline, hitting eight-month low, against the greenback as the negative sentiment in market, on expectations Greece may face a default, along with the week U.K. data gave more support to the dollar as a refuge. Yet, the pound managed to a rebound at the end of the week after the release of better-than-estimated retail sales report which offset the grim effect of the reports released earlier in the week showing rise in inflation and unemployment. This week, the main focus will be on Bank of England minutes and public finance data, while the spotlight will be on the FOMC two-day meeting from the United States. The release of the data this week will be as follows: Monday September 19: Both economies lack economic fundamentals which propose that there would be calm trading on the pair which is predicted to follow the general trend in market as it will not able to get direction from data. Tuesday September 20: U.K.nationwide consumer confidence for August due at 23:01 GMT is expected to show decline to 48 from the prior 49. In theU.S., the main focus will be housing starts and building permits for August due at 12:30 GMT which will provide evidence about the status of the housing market that triggered the 2008 crisis. Housing starts are expected to decrease to 590,000 from 604,000 in July, while building permits will probably show a fall to 588,000 from the prior 597,000. Wednesday September 21: At 08:30 GMT, attention will be toward BoE minutes release which may show a split among policy makers as some may support Adam Posen in adding to the APF after the slowdown in the economy. At the same time public finance excluding interventions will be due. Thereafter, eyes will be on MBA mortgage applications for Sep. 16 at 11:00 GMT while will be followed by existing home sales at 14:00 GMT. Existing home sales report is predicted to advance 1.7% from the prior 3.5% drop. However, the main highlight of the day will be the FOMC rate decision due at 18:15 GMT. Thursday September 22: At 10:00 GMT, CBI trends total orders for September will be out, yet the news is not expected to have a significant impact on the pair’s movements. For theU.S., initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep. 16 and continuing claims for the week ending Sep. 10 will be available at 12:30 GMT. Thereafter, leading indicators will be out at 14:00 GMT. Friday September 23: U.K. BBA loans for house purchase for the month of August will be released at 08:30 GMT, while the U.S. lacks economic fundamentals.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis for the Week of September 19, 2011

The USD/CAD pair fell hard during the week, as the oil markets are finding themselves getting a bid. The CAD is very sensitive to the oil price, and as such it makes sense that the pair would fall. However, with all of the headline risks out there at the moment, this pair could reverse very rapidly. The pair cannot be sold at this point as the 0.97 level looks to be supportive still, and as such it looks like we could end up bouncing around in this range for a while. The candle does look very bearish, but we need to see a daily close below that level to sell. The upside is capped by the 1.0050 level and we cannot buy until we close on a daily candle above that level.

USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis for the Week of September 19, 2011

The USD/CAD pair fell last week amid improving confidence levels in markets, where rising equity markets around the globe boosted demand for higher yielding assets, which provided the Canadian dollar with bullish momentum, as the USD/CAD pair fell to the downside. Confidence improved as EU officials assured markets thatGreecewill not leave the euro bloc, while the European Central Bank announced a joint effort with other central banks to inject liquidity into European banks in order to ease some of the pressures, which indeed helped in boosting confidence and pushed the USD/CAD pair further to the downside. Yet the losses were limited as worse than expected data from the United States signaled economic growth in the world’s largest economy remains weak. Markets will be following the FOMC meeting next week, where the FOMC is expected to announce more monetary easing measures, which should put the U.S. dollar under pressure, and that could send the USD/CAD pair further to the downside. Highlights for this week that will probably affect the USD/CAD pair’s direction are: Monday September 19: No data is queued for release fromCanadaor theU.S.economy which will leave trading influenced by the prevailing market sentiment. Tuesday September 20: The United State swill start the week with the Housing Starts for August at 12:30 GMT which is expected to ease to 590 thousand from 604 thousand. Building Permits are also expected with 1.8% drop to 590 thousand from 597 thousand the previous month. Canada will release the leading indicators for August at 12:30 GMT, where the leading indicators expanded by 0.2% back in July. Canada will also release the wholesale sales index for July at 12:30 GMT, where wholesale sales are expected to rise by 0.3% following the prior rise of 0.2%. Wednesday September 21: Canadawill release the consumer price index for August at 11:00 GMT, where CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% compared with 0.2% in July, and yearly CPI is expected to rise by 2.9% compared with 2.7% in the prior estimate. Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% in line with the prior rise, and yearly core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 1.6%. The existing home sales index will be released at 14:00 GMT for the month of August, where existing home sales are expected to rise by 1.7% to an annual rate of 4.75 million, compared with the prior estimate of 4.67 million. Wednesday will surely be dedicated to the Federal Reserve with eyes on the Federal Open Market Committee with the decision due 18:15 GMT. The FOMC is expected to keep rates at their historic low near zero while investors await the range of options to be discussed to ease the economic slump and support the recovery according to Bernanke’s comments earlier about the possibility for further monetary easing from the Feds. Thursday September 22: Canadawill release the retail sales index for July at 12:30 GMT, where retail sales are expected to drop by 0.3% compared with the prior rise of 0.7%, and retail sales excluding autos are expected to rise by 0.2% compared with the prior drop of 0.1% in June. The United State swill release the weekly jobless claims at 12:30 GMT after unexpectedly rising last week by 428 thousand. The leading indicators will be due at 14:00 GMT for August, where the index is expected to drop to 0.1% from the previous 0.5%. Friday September 23: No data is queued for release fromCanadaor theU.S.economy which will leave trading influenced by the prevailing market sentiment.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis for the Week of September 19, 2011

The USD/CHF pairfell a bit on the week, but it still quite lofty as it sits well above the 0.85 level that we have as support. The USD is now the “safe haven” of choice for the currency markets, and as such – any bad news could send this pair much higher. Of course the Swiss National Bank is sitting below and willing to sell the Franc against any and all currencies in order to weaken it. This should keep a floor under this pair for a while. We can only buy this pair, and would love to see 0.85 tested and confirmed as support in order to do it.

USD/CHF Weekly Fundamental Analysis for the Week of September 19, 2011

In the week ended September 16, the USD/CHF showed some decline as tensions in markets over possible default forGreeceenhanced demand on refuges led by the franc amid no new interventions or announcements by the SNB, where the dollar remained under pressure on speculations the Fed would announce a third round of stimulus in their meeting this week. This week, the spotlight will be on the FOMC two-day meeting from theUnited States while trade data from the Swiss economy will be carefully watched. Monday September 19: Both economies lack fundamentals which suggest that there would be calm trading on the pair that is expected to follow the general trend in market as it will not able to get direction from data. Tuesday September 20: At 06:00 GMT, the Swiss economy will release its most important data for the week which is trade data for Aug. with exports and imports during the month. The data will be under scrutiny as the recent reports showed that Swiss companies were negatively affected by the franc’s appreciation which forced the SNB to embark on several interventions to curb the franc’s runaway. The main focus will be housing starts and building permits for August due at 12:30 GMT which will provide evidence about the status of the housing market that triggered the 2008 crisis. Housing starts are expected to decrease to 590,000 from 604,000 in July, while building permits will probably show a fall to 588,000 from the prior 597,000.         Wednesday September 21: The Swiss economy will start the day with the release money supply M3 for the year ending August at 07:00 GMT. Thereafter, eyes will be on MBA mortgage applications for Sep. 16 at 11:00 GMT while will be followed by existing home sales at 14:00 GMT. Existing home sales report is predicted to advance 1.7% from the prior 3.5% drop. However, the main highlight of the day will be the FOMC rate decision due at 18:15 GMT. Thursday September 22: As of 09:00 GMT, credit Suisse Zew survey (expectations) for the month of September will be available. For theU.S., initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep. 16 and continuing claims for the week ending Sep. 10 will be available at 12:30 GMT. Thereafter, leading indicators will be out at 14:00 GMT. Friday September 23: The week ends with the release of no data from both economies which suggest that the pair will follow the general sentiment in market.

 

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