Forex Technical and Fundamental Analysis for the Week of October 17, 2011

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for the Week of October 17, 2011

The EUR/USDpair rose violently over the course of the week as traders pinned their hopes on some kind of solution for the EU debt issues. The weekend has the G20 meeting in Paris, and it seems to be the hope of the market that the Finance Ministers will come to some kind of agreement. However, these meetings rarely produce much in that way, so disappointment could be in the offering. The pair has stopped right at the 50% Fibonacci retrace, and is coming up on serious resistance in the form of 1.39 – 1.40. With this in mind, and the headline risks out there, if you aren’t long this pair already – you simply must wait for a daily close above the 1.40 level in order to be protected. However, the pair is in a downtrend still, so buying isn’t our favourite thing to do. What we would really like to see is a gap down on Monday morning, or a failure just below 1.40 in order to short tit. Until we get our signal – expect very choppy trading.

EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis for the Week of October 17, 2011

The EUR/USD ended a strongly bullish week on the supported from the EU and improved hopes that the leaders are moving forward to contain the crisis. We can see somewhat improved sentiment in the market and slightly eased fears on the pledges from the euro area to contain the debt crisis by supporting Greece and recapitalizing banks which eased the jitters over a financial system collapse in Europe and spreading to the global financial system. This improvement was mirrored in the roadmap presented by EC President Jose Barroso and the pledges from Germany and France to present a plan as soon as the October 23 summit and ahead of the November G20 Summit. Nevertheless, the market did not still see any concrete plans to the recapitalization or to what extent will the private sector participate in easing Greek woes, especially as the market is pricing 50-60% write-downs on Greek bonds much beyond the 21% according to the July agreement. This week we expect the rationality to start to return to the market and we might see more confined relief as jitters rise ahead of the coming summit especially if no plans emerge. We see the chances for heavy EUR/USD volatility with the focus shifting to economic data and the heavy inflation, housing and manufacturing figures from the United States that will confirm the sluggish pace of growth while corporate earnings also add to the pressure on the market. The Chinese growth figures are also to add to the volatility in the market and the regained focus on growth this week and how officials should move to kick start a stalling recovery amid the debt problems in Europe. Other news from the euro area and the U.S. economy to affect the pair this week: Monday October 17: The United State swill start the week at 12:30 GMT with the Empire Manufacturing index for October which is expected with improvement to -4.0 from -8.82. At 13:15 GMT the Industrial Production for September is due and expected to hold on the month with 0.2% gain and capacity utilization to move slightly higher to 77.5% from 77.4%. Tuesday October 18: Germany will start at 09:00 GMT with the Zew sentiment survey for October where the Current Situation index is expected to drop to 42.3 from 43.6 while the Economic Sentiment index to fall to -44.5 from -43.3. The euro area Zew Economic Sentiment for October is due at 09:00 GMT which is not likely to have improved from September’s -44.6. At 12:30 GMT the U.S. Producer Price Index for September is due and expected with 0.2% rise on the month after it remained unchanged in August and on the year to ease to 6.4% from 6.5%. Core PPI index is expected also with 0.1% on the month in line with August and on the year to ease to 2.4% from 2.5%. At 13:00 GMT the August TIC flows is due after in July the net long-term TIC flows recorded $9.5 billion rise and the total net TIC flows recorded net selling of $51.8 billion. Wednesday October 19: The euro area will release the August Current Account at 08:00 GMT where the deficit might have narrowed from -12.9 billion in seasonally adjusted terms after the trade deficit narrowed. At 09:00 GMT the Construction Output for August is due after it rose 1.4% in July and was higher 1.2% on the year. TheUnited States continues with the inflation data at 12:30 GMT with the Consumer Price Index for September. The CPI is expected to rise 0.3% on the month after 0.4% gain and on the year to hold at 3.8%, while Core CPI is expected to hold the monthly gain at 0.2% and on the year to rise slightly to 2.1% from 2.0%. The data continues with the Housing Starts for September also at 12:30 GMT and expected to rise to 594 thousand from 571 thousand. Building Permits on the other end are expected with 2.4% drop to 610 thousand from 620 thousand. The final release for the United States on Wednesday will be the Fed’s Beige Book at 18:00 GMT. Thursday October 20: At 06:00 GMT Germany will report the Producer Price Index for September which is expected with 0.3% rebound on the month following the drop of 0.3% and on the year to hold at 5.5%. The advanced consumer confidence for October is due at 14:00 GMT and expected to drop further to -20.0 from -19.1 in September. The United States will start with the weekly jobless claims for the week ending October 14 at 12:30 GMT after last week they rose by 404 thousand. At 14:00 GMT the September Leading Indicators are expected with a slightly drop to 0.2% from 0.3%. The Philadelphia Fed Index for October is expected to improve to -0.9 from -17.5 and finally Existing Home Sales for September are expected with 2.5% drop to 4.91 million from 5.03 million. Friday October 21: Germany will end the week with more confidence figures with the IFO Survey for October at 08:00 GMT; the Business Climate Indicator is expected to drop to 106.5 from 107.5 the Current Assessment index to fall to 116.9 from 117.9 and the Expectations index to drop to 97.0 from 98.0.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis for the Week of October 17, 2011

The AUD/USD pair had a wildly bullish week as traders bought this pair in droves. The “risk on” trade was in vogue this previous week, producing a parabolic move. The move is strong, and should be considered an opportunity to see what the market thinks. The pair looks set to rise over the long-term, but a pullback during the next week is in the cards, so it looks like buying on a pullback could help. Of course, if there is bad news out of the EU over the next few days, this pair will suffer. All things being equal, we like buying on the dips.

AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis for the Week of October 17, 2011

The Australian dollar ended a good week versus the dollar and major currencies, where it traded near the highest level in more than 3 weeks versus the American dollar as a rally in stocks spurred demand for higher-yielding assets and Germany and France pledged to deliver a plan to support banks and contain the debt crisis. Moreover, Aussie increased sharply versus its major counterpart the US dollar as the Australian economy reported positive employment data which confirmed the nation’s ongoing recovery. As for the European debt crisis, the leaders are going to introduce more measures to contain the escalating sovereign crisis while Slovakia ratified the EFSF changes and the facility is now operational which further eased the woes ahead of the coming EU summit on October 23 when the measures might be announced. Australia’s currency pared earlier losses after minutes of the central bank’s policy meeting this month said the Reserve Bank is “well placed” to respond to global and domestic economic risks and inflation. Major highlights for this week that will affect the AUD/USD pair’s trading Monday October 17: The week starts with the release of important data from both economies. As of 00:00 GMT the Australian consumer inflation expectations index is expected to rise to 3.0% in October 2.8% in September. The U.S. economy will release the Empire Manufacturing survey for October at 12:30 GMT where the index is expected to improve to -4.0 from -8.82. The Industrial Production for September will be released from the U.S. economy at 13:15 GMT and expected to maintain the same expansionary pace as the previous month of 0.2%. On the other hand, the Capacity Utilization is expected to rise to 77.5% from 77.4%. Tuesday October 18: The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the October minutes at 00:30 GMT, which will be closely assessed for any policy hints and whether the RBA considers cutting rates amid a challenging global environment. On Tuesday at 12:30 GMT, the U.S. economy will issue the Producer Price Index for September where it’s expected to come at 0.2% from the prior reading of 0.0%, while the annual Producer Price Index is expected to ease to 6.4% from 6.5%. The U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows for August will be released at 13:00 GMT, where the previous reading was $9.5 billion, as for Total Net TIC Flows it recorded net selling of $51.8 billion the previous month. Wednesday October 19: Australia’s Westpac leading index for August will be released at 23:30 GMT (Tuesday) after the reported 0.50% rise in July. The U.S. economy will issue the Consumer Price Index for September at 12:30 GMT, where it’s expected to come at 0.3% from the previous reading of 0.4%, as for the annual Consumer Price Index it’s expected to hold at 3.8%. The U.S. Housing Starts for September will be released as well at 12:30 GMT with and expected to rise to 595 thousand by 3.9% from the previous 571 thousand. The Building Permits on the other hand are expected with a drop by 2.4% to 610 from 620 thousand. Thursday October 20: The NAB quarterly business confidence is due from Australia at 00:30 GMT after it declined the previous reading to 6.0. On Thursday at 12:30 GMT, U.S. economy will issue its weekly initial claims numbers, where the number of people filing for first-time claims for the state unemployment insurance increased 404 thousand last week. The Leading Indicators for September will released at 14:00 GMT and expected to slow to 0.2% from 0.3%. The Philadelphia Fed index is also due at 14:00 GMT and expected to improve to –9.5 from -17.5. As for the Existing Home Sales for September it’s expected with a drop of 2.65% to 4.91 million from 5.03 million. Friday October 21: Both economies will not release any fundamentals and the pair will be affected by the prevailing economic sentiment.

EUR/CHF Technical Analysis for the Week of October 17, 2011

The EUR/CHF pair had a very flat week over the last several days, and continues to sit still in general. The pair could be the great trade of someone’s career if the EU gets it together, as the Swiss National Bank isn’t going to let this thing fall below the 1.20 mark. However, that seems to be wishful thinking at this point. We are waiting for the EU to come up with a feasible solution to its problems, and then we would buy and hold this pair for months, if not years. Until then – we aren’t trading it.

EUR/CHF Weekly Fundamental Analysis for the Week of October 17, 2011

Despite the improved euro sentiment in the market and the relief rally seen most of the week the EUR/CHF still ended last week with a decline even after recovering from earlier lows. The franc is recovering the losses endured in the previous week as the speculation that the SNB will move again and raise the floor set for the EUR/CHF eased, helping the franc regain some momentum especially amid the uncertainty over the outlook even if the debt woes ease. With the weakening chances for the Swiss National Bank to move on the set 1.20 floor for the pair the gains for the pair might be readjusted, especially as the confidence in the euro area leaders to contain the crisis did not erase the mounting fiscal problems in the euro area and the challenging outlook which still deprives the euro of risky demand against a still haven franc. This week the pair will continue to fluctuate heavily and might resume the tight ranged bearish bias as investors grow more cautious ahead of the EU Summit and the announcement of how the leaders plan to help Greece and capitalise banks. Investors need more details on how the euro area will contain the crisis and until clear measures are presented the market will remain volatile especially as the global data this week from China all the way to the United States will refocus the sentiment on fragile growth and accordingly fueling more market volatility. Other news from the euro area and the Swiss economy to affect the pair this week: Monday October 17: No data is due for release from both nations which will leave the focus on the sentiment and the ongoing developments in the euro area to contain the debt crisis. Tuesday October 18: The euro area Zew Economic Sentiment for October is due at 09:00 GMT which is not likely to have improved from September’s -44.6. Wednesday October 19: The euro area will release the August Current Account at 08:00 GMT where the deficit might have narrowed from -12.9 billion in seasonally adjusted terms after the trade deficit narrowed. At 09:00 GMT the Construction Output for August is due after it rose 1.4% in July and was higher 1.2% on the year. Thursday October 20: Switzerland will start the day at 06:00 GMT with the Trade figures for September where the nation suffered the weak global demand and franc’s rally that affected its exports heavily. The trade surplus was at 0.81 billion francs in August when exports slumped 7.0% and imports rose 0.9%. The advanced consumer confidence for October is due at 14:00 GMT and expected to drop further to -20.0 from -19.1 in September. Friday October 21: The Swiss annual M3 Money Supply for September is due at 07:00 GMT after it was reported with a rise of 7.6% the previous month.;

NZD/USD Technical Analysis for the Week of October 17, 2011

The NZD/USDpair broke the 0.8000 level during the past week. The pair shot straight up during the week, and the move was impressive. It is too far too quick, but the move seems very strong. The pair could pullback, and as such could give the USD a bit of a breather. The area we find ourselves in is very resistive, and any bad news could push this pair down very quickly. The Kiwi is very sensitive to the global risk parameters, and will continue to react according to it.

NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis for the Week of October 17, 2011

The New Zealand dollar continued to swing between gains and losses amid the foggy outlook for the European debt crisis and global growth, yet the sentiment started to gradually improve with leaders’ pledges to contain the crisis. On the other hand, the euro leaders pledged to introduce more measures to contain the European debt crisis and prevent a new financial meltdown by offering more support to banks which for now eased the worries in the market. The focus remains on the debt crisis and especially with the improvement seen in the sentiment in the past week. This week the focus might return on growth with the GDP from China and heavy housing and industrial data from the United States. Investors will eyes the developments in the euro area and whether they release concrete measures on how they will contain the crisis and all those factors will fuel heavy NZD/USD volatility. Major highlights for this week that will burden the NZD/USD pair’s trading Monday October 17: The New Zealand economy starts the data with the September performance services index at 21:30 GMT (Sunday) after it recorded 53.9 in August. The U.S. economy will release the Empire Manufacturing survey for October at 12:30 GMT where the index is expected to improve to -4.0 from -8.82. The Industrial Production for September will be released from the U.S. economy at 13:15 GMT and expected to maintain the same expansionary pace as the previous month of 0.2%. On the other hand, the Capacity Utilization is expected to rise to 77.5% from 77.4%. Tuesday October 18: On Tuesday at 12:30 GMT, the U.S. economy will issue the Producer Price Index for September where it’s expected to come at 0.2% from the prior reading of 0.0%, while the annual Producer Price Index is expected to ease to 6.4% from 6.5%. The U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows for August will be released at 13:00 GMT, where the previous reading was $9.5 billion, as for Total Net TIC Flows it recorded net selling of $51.8 billion the previous month. Wednesday October 19: The U.S. economy will issue the Consumer Price Index for September at 12:30 GMT, where it’s expected to come at 0.3% from the previous reading of 0.4%, as for the annual Consumer Price Index it’s expected to hold at 3.8%. The U.S. Housing Starts for September will be released as well at 12:30 GMT with and expected to rise to 595 thousand by 3.9% from the previous 571 thousand. The Building Permits on the other hand are expected with a drop by 2.4% to 610 from 620 thousand. Thursday October 20: At 21:45 GMT (Wednesday) NZD net migration S.A. is expected to increase in September after it inclined to 200 in August. On Thursday at 12:30 GMT, U.S. economy will issue its weekly initial claims numbers, where the number of people filing for first-time claims for the state unemployment insurance increased 404 thousand last week. The Leading Indicators for September will released at 14:00 GMT and expected to slow to 0.2% from 0.3%. The Philadelphia Fed index is also due at 14:00 GMT and expected to improve to –9.5 from -17.5. As for the Existing Home Sales for September it’s expected with a drop of 2.65% to 4.91 million from 5.03 million. Friday October 21: The New Zealand’s economy continues releasing fundamental data, where the economy will issue the credit card spending S.A. for September at 02:00 GMT after it dropped by 1.0% and inclined by 4.7% on the year.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis for the Week of October 17, 2011

The USD/JPYpair had another quiet week as the range bound attitude of this market continues. The market is almost impossible for the long-term trader to get involved with as the range is between 76.25 and 77.50 or so. This simply doesn’t give the long-term trader a chance to take advantage of the market. However, it should be noted that the Bank of Japan is sitting below, so a long could be taken – if you are willing to wait for a very, very long time in order to see if move in your favour.

USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis for the Week of October 17, 2011

The USD/JPY pair fluctuated last week as the risk appetite returned to markets; however fears and uncertainty regarding the global growth outlook prevented the pair from recording more gains and remained within the same range. The EU leaders pledged to contain the debt crisis and prevent it from spreading to other countries. The sentiment improved after the announcement which encouraged investors to increase demand for higher-yielding currencies. On the other hand, the Japanese yen retreated against most of its major counterparts, but it kept its gains against the dollar as the weak greenback opened the way for the yen to control the pair’s movement. The Fed’s meeting minutes didn’t draw a clear picture for the upcoming phase in the United States, which caused more selling pressures on the dollar against the major currencies especially as it showed some members supported another round of QE which will pressure the dollar. The BOJ’s minutes showed more downside risks to the Japanese economy, which could announce more monetary easing to support the economy, while the manufacturing sector still is not able to recover from the March 11 quake aftermath. Expectations still refer to strong yen especially against greenback, as fears of the debt crisis and global economy fuel risk aversion which could end any current optimistic movements in the markets. Major highlights for this week that will affect the USD/JPY pair’s trading: Monday October 17: On Monday at 04:30 GMT, the Japanese economy will start the week with the final August Industrial Production where it was reported with a rise of 0.8%, and by 0.6% on the year. The U.S. economy will release the Empire Manufacturing survey for October at 12:30 GMT where the index is expected to improve to -4.0 from -8.82. The Industrial Production for September will be released from the U.S. economy at 13:15 GMT and expected to maintain the same expansionary pace as the previous month of 0.2%. On the other hand, the Capacity Utilization is expected to rise to 77.5% from 77.4%. Tuesday October 18: On Tuesday at 12:30 GMT, the U.S. economy will issue the Producer Price Index for September where it’s expected to come at 0.2% from the prior reading of 0.0%, while the annual Producer Price Index is expected to ease to 6.4% from 6.5%. The U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows for August will be released at 13:00 GMT, where the previous reading was $9.5 billion, as for Total Net TIC Flows it recorded net selling of $51.8 billion the previous month. Wednesday October 19: On Wednesday at 04:30 GMT, the Japanese economy will release the All Industry Activity Index for August, where it had a previous reading of 0.4% and expected to fall to 0.5%. The U.S. economy will issue the Consumer Price Index for September at 12:30 GMT, where it’s expected to come at 0.3% from the previous reading of 0.4%, as for the annual Consumer Price Index it’s expected to hold at 3.8%. The U.S. Housing Starts for September will be released as well at 12:30 GMT with and expected to rise to 595 thousand by 3.9% from the previous 571 thousand. The Building Permits on the other hand are expected with a drop by 2.4% to 610 from 620 thousand. Thursday October 20: On Thursday at 05:00 GMT, Japan will release the final reading of Coincident Index for August, which had a prior reading of 107.4, while the Leading Index had a previous reading of 103.8. On Thursday at 12:30 GMT, U.S. economy will issue its weekly initial claims numbers, where the number of people filing for first-time claims for the state unemployment insurance increased 404 thousand last week. The Leading Indicators for September will released at 14:00 GMT and expected to slow to 0.2% from 0.3%. The Philadelphia Fed index is also due at 14:00 GMT and expected to improve to –9.5 from -17.5. As for the Existing Home Sales for September it’s expected with a drop of 2.65% to 4.91 million from 5.03 million. Friday October 21: Both economies will not release any fundamentals and the pair will be affected by the prevailing economic sentiment.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis for the Week of October 17, 2011

The GBP/USD pair rose during the week, and even broke the 1.58 level. The real question now is whether or not the pair can continue. So far, it looks very bullish. With the G20 meeting over the weekend, traders will focus on anything Europe-related coming out, and as the British are so exposed to the EU debt issues, this will certainly have an effect on this pair. The pair looks strong technically, but is going to be prone to headline risks going forward. The issues in Europe are simply far too troublesome for it to be any other way. Because of this, we are still looking for rallies to sell, but think that this pair could rise as far as 1.60 before running into massive resistance.

GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis for the Week of October 17, 2011

In the week ended October 14, the GBP/USD showed an incline on hopes European officials will announce decisive and comprehensive plan to battle the debt crisis, which enhanced demand on the sterling as a high-yielding currency. EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso outlined a roadmap to combat the crisis. Inspectors from the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank, know as the troika, said Greece will probably get the next tranche of last year’s 110-aid package in early November. Slovakia ratified the expansion of the EFSF to make all euro-area economies able to use this strong tool, where the aforesaid provided hopes and confidence in markets. This week, the main highlight will be on U.K. inflation, retail sales and BoE minutes while inflation and housing as well as other important news from the United States. Monday October 17: While the British economy lacks fundamentals, the U.S. will release empire manufacturing for October at 12:30 GMT, followed by industrial production and capacity utilization for September at 13:15 GMT. Tuesday October 18: CPI and RPI data will grab attention at 08:30 GMT where expectations refer to a rise in CPI annual reading for Sep. to 4.9% from the prior 4.5%. The data is predicted to have an impact on the pair if it came much higher or lower than forecasts. The latest expectations for the BoE referred to a possible rise in inflation to around 5%, noting that the latest expansion in the APF will probably lead to further rise in inflation. The main focus in the U.S.will also be on inflation data with the release of PPI at 12:30 GMT, where the annual reading excluding food and energy will inch down to 2.4% in Sep. from 2.5% in Aug., according to median forecasts. On the other hand, Switzerland has no releases. Wednesday October 19: At 08:30 GMT, attention will be toward BoE minutes release which may show a split among policy makers as some may have supported Adam Posen in adding 75 billion pounds to the APF in October while others opposed it. In a day full of fundamentals from the U.S., the start will be with MBA mortgage applications for October 14 which will be available at 11:00 GMT, followed by housing starts and building permits and CPI at 12:30 GMT. Housing starts, which will provide evidence about the status of the housing market that triggered the 2008 crisis, are expected to increase to 594,000 in September from 571,000 in August, while building permits will probably show a fall to 610,000 from the prior 620,000. On the other hand, CPI for the year ended September is predicted to rise to 2.1% from the preceding 2.0%. Thereafter, eyes will be on the Fed Beige book at 18:00 GMT. Thursday October 20: At 08:30 GMT, the UK will release retail sales for September; analysts are predicting a 0.1% decline in the reading with auto fuel compared with the 0.2% drop in August. For the U.S., initial jobless claims for the week ended Oct. 14 and continuing claims for the week ended Oct. 8 will be available at 12:30 GMT. Leading indicators and Philadelphia Fed will be out at 14:00 GMT. At the same time, existing home sales report is predicted to show 2.5% drop in Sep. from the prior 7.7% surge. Friday October 21: The week ends with the release of public finance excluding interventions at 08:30 GMT, while the U.S. has no releases.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis for the Week of October 17, 2011

The USD/CADcontinued to fall this past week, and decidedly so. The pair looks massively bearish, but the parity level is sitting just below the present level. With this in mind, we cannot sell until we get a close below it. The recent action has been a massively bullish break out, followed by a massively bearish break down. This market is extremely volatile at this moment, and is hard to trade for longer-term traders. With this in mind, we want to see what the next weekly candle looks like, and if it reacts to the parity level in a supportive or weak way. Until then, we are sitting on our hands.

USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis for the Week of October 17, 2011

The USD/CAD pair extended its drop last week amid rising hopes and optimism in markets, which boosted demand for higher yielding assets, leading the Canadian dollar to rise as a result, especially as commodities gained as well, which provided the CAD with strong bullish momentum that pushed the USD/CAD pair to the downside. Investors were optimistic that European leaders will be able to craft a plan that will ease the deepening debt crisis in the euro zone region, which put negative pressure on lower yielding assets including the U.S. dollar. The week is full of economic fundamentals from all around the globe, especially from theUnited States, where data on inflation will be released next week, while other data include manufacturing and housing figures among several others. We can see somewhat improved sentiment in the market and slightly eased fears on the pledges from the euro area to contain the debt crisis by supporting Greece and recapitalizing banks which eased the jitters over a financial system collapse in Europeand spreading to the global financial system. This improvement was mirrored in the roadmap presented by EC President Jose Barroso and the pledges from Germany and France to present a plan as soon as the October 23 summit and ahead of the November G20 Summit. Nevertheless, the market did not still see any concrete plans to the recapitalization or to what extent will the private sector participate in easing Greek woes, especially as the market is pricing 50-60% write-downs on Greek bonds much beyond the 21% according to the July agreement. If optimism persists in markets, it could push the USD/CAD pair further to the downside, but economic fundamentals will play a major role in determining the pair’s direction next week, since important data will be released from the United States, while sentiment regarding the situation inEuropewill also play a major role. Accordingly, we still expect volatility to dominate the pair’s trading next week. Highlights for this week that will probably affect the USD/CAD pair’s direction are: Monday October 17: The United States will start the week at 12:30 GMT with the Empire Manufacturing index for October which is expected with improvement to -4.0 from -8.82. At 13:15 GMT the Industrial Production for September is due and expected to hold on the month with 0.2% gain and capacity utilization to move slightly higher to 77.5% from 77.4%. Tuesday October 18: At 12:30 GMT the U.S. Producer Price Index for September is due and expected with 0.2% rise on the month after it remained unchanged in August and on the year to ease to 6.4% from 6.5%. Core PPI index is expected also with 0.1% on the month in line with August and on the year to ease to 2.4% from 2.5%. At 13:00 GMT the August TIC flows is due after in July the net long-term TIC flows recorded $9.5 billion rise and the total net TIC flows recorded net selling of $51.8 billion. Wednesday October 19: The United States continues with the inflation data at 12:30 GMT with the Consumer Price Index for September. The CPI is expected to rise 0.3% on the month after 0.4% gain and on the year to hold at 3.8%, while Core CPI is expected to hold the monthly gain at 0.2% and on the year to rise slightly to 2.1% from 2.0%. The data continues with the Housing Starts for September also at 12:30 GMT and expected to rise to 594 thousand from 571 thousand. Building Permits on the other end are expected with 2.4% drop to 610 thousand from 620 thousand. Canada will release the leading indicators index for September, where the leading indicators index was flat back in August. The final release for the United States on Wednesday will be the Fed’s Beige Book at 18:00 GMT. Thursday October 20: The United States will start with the weekly jobless claims for the week ending October 14 at 12:30 GMT after last week they rose by 404 thousand. Canada will release the wholesale sales index for August, where the index is expected to expand by 0.4%, compared with 0.8% back in July. At 14:00 GMT the September Leading Indicators are expected with a slightly drop to 0.2% from 0.3%. The Philadelphia Fed Index for October is expected to improve to -0.9 from -17.5 and finally Existing Home Sales for September are expected with 2.5% drop to 4.91 million from 5.03 million. Friday October 21: Canada will release the consumer price index for September, where CPI is expected to rise by 0.1%, compared with 0.3% in August, while compared with a year earlier, CPI is expected to rise by 3.0%, following the prior rise of 3.1%. Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.2%, compared with 0.4% in August, and compared with a year earlier, Core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 1.9%.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis for the Week of October 17, 2011

USD/CHF fell for the week and even broke through the 0.9000 level. However, there is a hammer from a month ago on the weekly chart that shows support just below current levels. This looks very supportive, and the Swiss National Bank is very active in expressing its dislike for appreciation of the Franc. With this in mind, we are looking to buy supportive candles as we cannot buy this pair at all. Until we get that hammer or bullish candle, we are sitting still.

USD/CHF Weekly Fundamental Analysis for the Week of October 17, 2011

In the week ended October 14, the USD/CHF showed decline on hopes European officials will introduce decisive and comprehensive plan to combat the debt crisis which eroded demand on the dollar as a safe haven. EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso outlined a roadmap to combat the crisis. Inspectors from the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank, know as the troika, said Greece will probably get the next tranche of last year’s 110-aid package in early November. Slovakia ratified the expansion of the EFSF to make all euro-area economies able to use this strong tool, where the aforesaid provided hopes and confidence in markets. Recently, the dollar became a favourite refuge amid the several interventions by the SNB to curb the franc’s appreciation while investors became wary of buying the franc as a safe harbor on possible rise in the franc’s cap against the euro. This week, the main highlight will be on Swiss trade data, and inflation and housing as well as other important news from theUnited States. Monday October 17: While the Swiss economy lacks fundamentals, theU.S.will release empire manufacturing for October at 12:30 GMT, followed by industrial production and capacity utilization for September at 13:15 GMT. Tuesday October 18: The main focus will also be on inflation data with the release of PPI at 12:30 GMT, where the annual reading excluding food and energy will inch down to 2.4% in Sep. from 2.5% in Aug., according to median forecasts. On the other hand, Switzerland has no releases. Wednesday October 19: In a day full of fundamentals from the U.S., the start will be with MBA mortgage applications for October 14 which will be available at 11:00 GMT, followed by housing starts and building permits and CPI at 12:30 GMT. Housing starts, which will provide evidence about the status of the housing market that triggered the 2008 crisis, are expected to increase to 594,000 in September from 571,000 in August, while building permits will probably show a fall to 610,000 from the prior 620,000. On the other hand, CPI for the year ended September is predicted to rise to 2.1% from the preceding 2.0%. Thereafter, eyes will be on the Fed Beige book at 18:00 GMT. Thursday October 20: At 06:00 GMT, the Swiss economy will release its most important data for the week which is trade data for Aug. with exports and imports during the month. The data will be under scrutiny as the recent earnings reports showed that Swiss companies were negatively affected by the franc’s appreciation which forced the SNB to embark on several interventions to curb the franc’s runaway. As of 09:00 GMT, credit Suisse Zew survey (expectations) for the month of Octobe will be available. For the U.S., initial jobless claims for the week ended Oct. 14 and continuing claims for the week ended Oct. 8 will be available at 12:30 GMT. Leading indicators and Philadelphia Fed will be out at 14:00 GMT.  At the same time, existing home sales report is predicted to show 2.5% drop in Sep. from the prior 7.7% surge. Friday October 21: The week ends with the release of money supply M3 for the year ending Sep. at 07:00 GMT, while the U.S. has no releases.

 

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