Forex Technical and Fundamental Analysis for September 26, 2011

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for September 26, 2011

EUR/USD had a whippy day on Friday as traders aren’t sure what the G-20 conference will produce over the weekend. Without a doubt, the debt crisis in at the fore front on the meeting, and any announcement will certainly have an effect on the pair’s price action Monday. More ominously will be if there is no statement or action. If that is the case – this pair will come undone in a hurry. Because of this, we expect to see something pro-Euro, but the most likely outcome of that is a selling opportunity from higher levels. For the time being, one has to wait for a statement to have any real analysis of the short-term direction. The long-term certainly looks bleak for this pair though.

EUR/USD Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 26, 2011

After the end of a very pessimistic week and the huge selloff seen in the market the EUR/USD is struggling to find the floor, and with the start on Monday investors remain jittery especially that the market in the past period has been returning to an opening gap. With the start of the week the market will try to find any reason for relief as the correction is needed after the selloff and with the leaders and central bankers moving to contain the crisis. More volatility is surely expected with the overall pessimistic sentiment with focus on developments inGreeceand in the outlook for the global economy and whether recession woes will start to ease. On Monday, Germany will release the IFO sentiment survey for September at 08:00 GMT where the business climate indicators is expected to fall to 106.5 from 108.7 the current assessment to ease to 116.0 from 118.1 and the expectations index to fall to 97.3 from 100.1. The United State swill start the week with the New Home Sales for August at 14:00 GMT where the index is expected with a drop of 1.0% to 295 thousand from 298 thousand.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis for September 26, 2011

The AUD/USD pair fell again on Friday as traders continued to sell off riskier assets around the world. The resulting bar was a bit of a hammer, and a bounce wouldn’t be out of the question at this point. The parity level is the area we would like to sell from if we get the chance, as it could be very resistive. The breaking of fresh lows would be a decent selling opportunity as well. We aren’t really interested in buying the Aussie at the moment as there are simply far too many headline risks around the world in which to spook this risk-sensitive market presently.

AUD/USD Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 26, 2011

The AUD/USD pair dropped to its lowest level in nine months last week as pessimism controls the financial market due to concerns over the global growth outlook and the current debt crisis in the euro area. The greenback soared against most of its major counterparts, as investors shifted their investments to lower yielding currencies and abandoned other currencies, giving the Federal currency the chance to record more gains. On Monday the U.S. new home sales for August will be released at 14:00 GMT, where it’s expected to come at 295 thousand down by 1.0% from 298 thousand.

EUR/CHF Technical Analysis for September 26, 2011

EUR/CHF fell on Friday as traders sold off riskier currencies. We warned that this pair could fall a bit, but it cannot be sold with the Swiss National Bank setting a floor at 1.20, and until the EU gets its act together, we are going to have a hard time buying it either. In some ways, this could be the most sensitive pair to the crisis in Europe, at least if they find a solution. If so, this pair will skyrocket. If not, it could fall, but that is only inviting intervention by the Swiss. We are watching both the debt crisis in the EU and this chart for a signal, but see none at the moment.

EUR/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 26, 2011

The EUR/CHF starts a new week on Monday with the prevailing jitters and fears as investors see the debt crisis deepening, the global economy heading to recession, and risks that the SNB will act again. With the risk aversion and global selloff the euro remains weak, especially as investors are anxious for any developments fromGreeceand whether they will avoid default or not. We see that the franc is starting to regain some strength after last week’s losses on reduced bets that the floor for the pair will be raised to 1.25 from 1.20 and accordingly the bearish tendency might continue for the pair to return towards 1.20 areas again. Eyes will be on the data fromGermanywith the absence of data from the euro area and Switzerland. Germany will release the IFO sentiment survey for September at 08:00 GMT where the business climate indicators is expected to fall to 106.5 from 108.7 the current assessment to ease to 116.0 from 118.1 and the expectations index to fall to 97.3 from 100.1.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis for September 26, 2011

NZD/USDfell again on Friday as traders are selling any and all commodities. Being so sensitive to commodities has really punished this currency over the last couple of days, and as the world continues to worry – this pair will continue to fall. A bounce could be coming, but quite frankly – as long as we stay under 0.8000, it will more than likely just be a selling opportunity. The world is slowing down economically, and this is bad news for the Kiwi that is so export-driven. Selling rallies and fresh lows is the way to go at this point.

NZD/USD Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 26, 2011

The NZD/USD pair retreated to its lowest level in five months affected by the strong US dollar and the weak market sentiment which supported demand for lower yielding assets. The Kiwi dropped heavily last week against the greenback, after the Fed said there are “significant” downside risks to U.S. growth, which increased fears over broad markets and drove traders to focus on lower yielding currencies like the U.S. dollar. On Monday at 21:45 GMT (Sunday) New Zealand will report the trade balance for August after the July’s reading showed a surplus by NZ$129 million, while analysts expect the nation will record a deficit by NZ$321 million in August along with a decline in the nation’s exports to NZ$3.44 billion from NZ$3.72 billion. The U.S. new home sales for August will be released at 14:00 GMT, where it’s expected to come at 295 thousand down by 1.0% from 298 thousand.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis for September 26, 2011

USD/JPY rose on Friday as traders continue the back and forth dance with the Bank of Japan at the 76 handle. The pair can’t be sold, as the area is certainly being watched and possibly protected by the BoJ at this point. However, most buying opportunities seem to be of the scalping variety, and as such – we only recommend short-term trades at this point to the upside. It seems that every time we get down to 76, the pair wants to rise about 80 pips. Because of this, a small scalp is possible from the lower levels until they are breeched. Selling just isn’t advised until the Bank of Japan gets out of the way.

USD/JPY Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 26, 2011

The USD/JPY pair retreated last week due to concerns over the outlook for the global economy, as investors shifted their investments to the lower yielding assets like the Japanese yen, pushing the pair to the downside. On the other hand the U.S. dollar surged to its highest level in eight months against the euro and to its highest in a year against the sterling pound, after the Federal Open Market Committee announced extra monetary easing, trying to halt the slowdown in the U.S. economy while the FOMC kept the interest rate unchanged between 0.00% and 0.25%. Expectations signal further losses for the USD/JPY pair during the coming period, as jitters spread all over financial markets, increasing demand for the Japanese yen as a safe haven which pushed the pair to the downside. On Monday the U.S. new home sales for August will be released at 14:00 GMT, where it’s expected to come at 295 thousand down by 1.0% from 298 thousand.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis for September 26, 2011

The GBP/USDpair fell after rising to the 1.55 level on Friday. The area was recently support, so a retest of it as resistance would be expected by the markets, and it did in fact fail to break above that area. This is a very bearish sign as it shows that the market cannot break above, and there isn’t significant buying pressure to continue anything of substance for any great length of time. Because of this, we are still selling the cable, and will continue to do so anytime it rallies. We believe that 1.55 could be an excellent entry as we consolidate just under it. A fresh low also gets us selling again.

GBP/USD Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 26, 2011

On Friday, the pair did a slight upside correction after the G20 chiefs pledged “strong and coordinated international response to address the renewed challenges facing the global economy,” where they also vowed to help in easing pressure on European banks, thereby damping demand on the greenback as safe haven. Yet, over the week the dollar showed advance over the sterling as last week’s announcements by the Fed Chairman and BoE officials’ along with the grim fundamental reports and the escalating European debt woes enhanced safety demand on the dollar. On Monday, The week starts with the release BBA loans for house purchase which is predicted to increase in June to 31,000 from 30,509 a month earlier, while theU.S.economy lacks fundamentals.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis for September 26, 2011

USD/CAD climbed again on Friday as traders sold oil markets off in large amounts. The oil trade is directly related to the USD/CAD trade, and such we expect the CAD to gain in value as oil rises, and vice versa. The day’s action saw another attempt at 1.03, and although we did break through again, it was much more muted on Friday than Thursday. It makes sense that we could see a pullback at this point, as the oil markets look like a bounce is in the cards. We suggest that pullbacks are to be welcome buying opportunities at this point. The parity level should be massive support now, and so could a couple of the “round numbers” below. 1.02 and 1.01 are areas that we are looking for supportive candles from which to buy.

USD/CAD Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 26, 2011

The USD/CAD pair was little changed on Friday, as traders remained cautious after a huge selloff wave dominated global markets, which led investors to shun risky assets and target lower yielding assets. Moreover, commodities came under pressure on Friday, which also weighed down on the Canadian dollar and allowed the USD/CAD pair to maintain its gains. We expect the USD/CAD pair to extend its gains over the coming period, since signs of slowing global growth, in addition to the European debt crisis, are likely to keep demand for lower yielding assets strong, and that will provide the USD/CAD pair with more bullish momentum over the coming period. Monday September 26: The United States will start the week with the New Home Sales for August at 14:00 GMT where the index is expected with a drop of 1.0% to 295 thousand from 298 thousand.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis for September 26, 2011

USD/CHFrose, but fell as well on Friday and then gained some ground back in the end of trading. The pair is decidedly bullish, and we now see dips as buying opportunities. The Friday action saw this pair test the 0.9000 as support, and it held. In our opinion, with the Swiss National Bank actively working against the Franc, this pair will probably hit parity in the relative near term. It will rise as global fears rise. Because of this, we like buying dips from this point on, as long as we can stay above the 0.88 level.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 26, 2011

On Friday, the pair did a slight downside correction after the G20 chiefs pledged “strong and coordinated international response to address the renewed challenges facing the global economy,” where they also vowed to help in easing pressure on European banks, thereby damping demand on the greenback as safe haven. Yet, over the week the dollar showed advance as last week’s announcements by the Fed Chairman along with the escalating European debt woes enhanced safety demand on the dollar which became more attractive as a haven amid the ongoing interventions by the SNB to weaken the franc. On Monday, the week starts with the release of no fundamentals from the Swiss economy, while theU.S.will release new home sales for the month of August, where expectations refer to a drop to 295,000 in August from the prior 298,000.

 

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