Forex Technical and Fundamental Analysis for September 19, 2011

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for September 19, 2011

The EUR/USDfell on Friday, and more importantly failed to close above the previous support area that kept this pair afloat. Now it seems that “what was once support is now resistance” and as a classic technical indication – this pair should fall from these levels. This pair is going to be extremely sensitive to headlines coming out of the EU, and the trading could be choppy, but the tone has been set in our minds. This pair should fall over the long run, and as such we are ready to sell rallies.

EUR/USD Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 19, 2011

The EUR/USD ended last week with gains as the jitters that started the week over Greek default started to unwind, supporting the euro to move higher. Investors start a new week with eyes still on the euro area as the market will react to the meetings inPolandand whether the EU finance chiefs provided any insights over the next step for debt laden nations as their meetings continued into Saturday. We expect the pair to start the week with eyes also on the United States with the lack of data as they assess the possibility for the Feds to approve new stimulus to support the faltering recovery which should sustain the gains and the confidence, though generally choppy trading is expected on Monday with the start of a new week and amid the lack of major fundamentals. The euro area will start the week with Construction Output for July at 09:00 GMT after the reported 1.8% drop in June.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis for September 19, 2011

The AUD/USD pairmanaged a bounce from the two previous hammers that it printed this week. The Friday action was positive, but not overly so. The pair looks like it is going to grind higher, so a long is acceptable, but you should be aware that this pair could be pushed around by the events unfolding in Europe. The pair is a “barometer of risk” and could be greatly affected by news. The pair does however look set to grind towards 1.05 before parity. It sometimes will follow gold, and it looks like that might be the case in the near-term.

AUD/USD Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 19, 2011

The AUD/USD pair dropped last week as the US dollar continued its upside wave against other major currencies, due to the risk aversion that controlled the FX market again. Moreover, the Australian dollar declined to the lowest level in more than three weeks versus the greenback on concern the Greek crisis may escalate, prompting investors to sell higher yielding currencies. Nevertheless, the sentiment started to improve with the end of the week which might continue into Monday as investors start the week with focus on steady support from governments and central banks that will unwind the pessimism with growth expectations. The Reserve Bank of Australia sees that the economy needs to time recover, adding that the Bank won’t increase the borrowing costs until the end of the year, which is an effort to support the economic recovery. On Monday at 14:00 GMT, the U.S. economy will release the NAHB Housing Market Index for the month of September, where the expectations are for the index to hold steady at 15.

EUR/CHF Technical Analysis for September 19, 2011

The EUR/CHF continues to be buoyed by the Swiss National Bank and its “line in the sand” at the 1.20 level. The pair cannot be sold because of that, but the pair cannot rise until the Europeans get their act together. This seems very unlikely in the near future, and as such is going to keep this pair stagnant in the near-term. We are ignoring this pair until something can be agreed upon about the EU credit and debt crisis.

EUR/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 19, 2011

The EUR/CHF continues to trade within a tight range amid the lack of momentum after the SNB intervention and Monday will be another tight ranged trading day with the lack of major fundamentals. Investors start a new week with eyes still on the euro area as the market will react to the meetings inPolandand whether the EU finance chiefs provided any insights over the next step for debt laden nations as their meetings continued into Saturday. The euro area will start the week with Construction Output for July at 09:00 GMT after the reported 1.8% drop in June.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis for September 19, 2011

NZD/USDcontinues to fight for the positive at this point, and Friday saw it rising. The 0.81 level is massive support at this point, and the 0.85 – 0.86 levels seem massively resistive. The pair is likely to find itself very range bound for the near-term, and the pair will also be very sensitive to news out of Europe. The Kiwi is a proxy for risk in the currency markets, and as such this pair could be wild in the short-term, but until we get out of this range it will be hard to hold onto trades for more than a few hours at a time.

NZD/USD Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 19, 2011

The NZD/USD pair was able to advance last week despite the strong US dollar, as the outlook for the New Zealand economy in addition to easing woes to the end of the week over Greek default. On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar is to find some support against majors as the New Zealand economic recovery is on track supported by strong terms during the period. The week will start for the pair at 22:00 GMT (Sunday) where New Zealand will release the Westpac NZ consumer confidence index for the third quarter that has a medium effect on the Kiwi’s movements against the majors. At 22:30 GMT (Sunday) New Zealand will released the performance services index for August after it reached 54.5 in July. On Monday at 14:00 GMT, the U.S. economy will release the NAHB Housing Market Index for the month of September, where the expectations are for the index to hold steady at 15.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis for September 19, 2011

USD/JPYmanaged a slightly positive day on Friday as traders continue to respect the 76 handle as support in this pair. There are even rumours of the Bank of Japan intervening in the markets clandestinely at this level. The bottom for the time being seems set, and as a result – we buy for quick scalps the closer we get to 76. If we manage to break below that level – we would walk away from this pair altogether.

USD/JPY Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 19, 2011

The USD/JPY pair declined last week with the strength of the Japanese yen due to the current jitters in the financial market regarding the deepening EU dept crisis and U.S. economic slowdown. Speculations thatGreeceis nearing default in addition to the signs of spreading the European debt crisis drove the 17-nation euro to its lowest level in more than 10 years against the yen. Risk aversion pushed the greenback up against other major currencies, but the Japanese yen still control the USD/JPY pair movement to become number one safe haven currency. Nevertheless, with easing woes over Greek default to the end of the week the yen started to weaken and on Monday might still lose some strength versus the dollar, yet the jitters will remain evident with this week eyes on the FOMC decision on Wednesday. On Monday at 14:00 GMT, the U.S. economy will release the NAHB Housing Market Index for the month of September, where the expectations are for the index to hold steady at 15.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis for September 19, 2011

The GBP/USD marketcontinues to meander around the 1.57 – 1.58 area. The pair recently broke through the massive support area in the form of the 1.5850 area, and looks to be weak in the face of a 5 day winning streak for the stock markets. Since this pair normally follows the stock markets in general, the lack of serious pushed northward seems to show real weakness at this point. If we can break the bottom of Wednesday’s lows, we are selling this pair in an aggressive manner. Rallies are suspect, and we believe that the 1.60 area with its pair of shooting stars will keep a cap on any gains in the Pound at this point.

GBP/USD Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 19, 2011

The lack of data with the start of the week will leave the GBP/USD pair’s trading in line with the prevailing sentiment and focus on the week ahead. The main high light for the pair remains the central banks next move. On Monday investors will start pricing their expectations for the BoE minutes and FOMC decision and the disparities between the both will drive the pair. Debt woes haunting the market started to ease and unwinding of pessimism is supporting sterling as the dollar weakens; if the focus remains on the upside support from governments and central banks alongside expectations for support from the Federal Reserve to be announced this week will likely help the pair move to the upside.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis for September 19, 2011

USD/CADfell hard on Friday, and even closed at the bottom of the range. The pair is testing the 0.98 level, and we see the next 100 pips down to the 0.97 level as massive support. The oil markets are controlling this pair, and as it rises the CAD will be in demand. If the Light Sweet Crude market can break and close above the $90 level – we suspect this pair will have broke down below support at that level. We don’t’ buy this pair as it is counter trend until a close above the 1.0050 level.

USD/CAD Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 19, 2011

The USD/CAD pair dropped on Friday, as rising equity markets continued to support higher yielding assets in markets, which provided the Canadian dollar with bullish momentum that pushed the USD/CAD pair to the downside. Moreover, the University of Michigan consumer confidence came out better than median estimates in September’s preliminary estimate, which also boosted confidence and put downside pressure on the USD/CAD pair. If the current wave of optimism continues to dominate markets, we should expect the USD/CAD pair to extend its downside wave, nonetheless, we expect the bearish wave to continue over the short term only, since the medium term outlook still suggests that the pair will continue to rise, unless the Fed announce a huge amount of monetary easing next week. Monday September 19: No data is queued for release from Canada or the U.S. economy which will leave trading influenced by the prevailing market sentiment.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis for September 19, 2011

USD/CHFrose on Friday, and the pair seems to be lifting slowly. The Swiss National Bank is selling the Franc anytime it rises, so buying this pair is the only way to go in this pair. The USD/CHF is currently just above the 200-day moving average, and many traders use this as a trend indicator. The Swiss Franc is no longer a “safe haven” currency at this point, and the USD has become the eminent currency for such a trade. Any bad news and this pair could continue to rise at this point. We can’t sell this pair for any reason at this point.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 19, 2011

Last week the USD/CHF ended the week with gains despite the SNB’s strong rhetoric and commitment to keep the franc week, where the weakerUSprospects and haven demand kept the franc more favourable most of the week. Nevertheless, to the end of the week we saw the dollar regain some strength on somewhat eased debt woes and end of the week position squaring. This week the focus for the pair remains the sentiment and the outlook for the FOMC rate decision and whether the Feds will announce more stimuli that will expand the dollar supply and keep greenback weaker which surely will benefit swissy. The pair will fluctuate on Monday with eyes on the debt crisis, weak growth outlook, and the FOMC decision where the lack of fundamentals will let the sentiment remain the main driver for the pair.

 

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