Forex Technical and Fundamental Analysis for September 12, 2011

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for September 12, 2011

The EUR/USD pairfinally came undone during the Friday session, and we have had a major breaking of support as a result. The pair smashed through the last of the support that it had, and as a result is now a “sell only” pair at this point. We are selling rallies and new lows. We will not buy this pair, even on the inevitable bounces, as there is simply far too much trouble to be found in the EU these days. 1.40 should be the cap for any massive snap backs.

EUR/USD Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 12, 2011

The euro ended last week with heavy losses and the dollar remains the favourite for more gains as the euro area outlook continues to worsen. Last week Trichet confirmed to markets the worsening economic conditions and shifted the stance to dovish which pressured the euro further to the downside as already it remains battered by debt woes. The week starts with focus on the developments in debt-laden nations as this week the lack of major euro area data will leave investors to focus on the debt debate. The euro area starts the week quietly on Monday with investors looking for clues for the next move and the means to contain the debt crisis, where eyes will track the EU’s annual report on public finances which might have its effect on the market. We expect move volatility for the EUR/USD as the pair trades near critical levels that will define the coming trend for the pair and whether the euro can find the strength to recover some losses, though the odds are still high for more euro weakness for now unless a major breakthrough is seen in debt talks this week.  

AUD/USD Technical Analysis for September 12, 2011

The AUD/USDfell on Friday, as did all risk-related currencies. However, the AUD is a bit insulated as there is massive demand for gold at the moment, and Australia has plenty of it. The area just below the close is full of choppiness and supportive action, so it is likely that any falls we see from here will be of the slow grinding kind, if we see them at all. As a rule, if the stock markets rise globally, this pair will as well. Keep one eye on the NASDAQ, NYSE, FTSE and DAX in order to know whether or not to buy this pair. With the recent gloom and doom in the air, this pair will difficult to own for any long periods of time.

AUD/USD Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 12, 2011

The AUD/USD pair declined slightly last week, as the Australian GDP and RBA rate decision pressured Aussie against the strong US dollar. The Australian dollar (Aussie) fluctuated heavily last week as a result of heavy data released, where also the pessimistic sentiment in the market kept the downside pressure evident on high yielding currencies. On the other hand, Australia said the economy needs time to recover, adding that the Bank won’t increase the borrowing costs till the end of the year, in an effort to support the economic recovery. On Monday, the Australian economy is to start the week’s fundamentals with the trade balance index for July at 01:30 GMT, where the surplus is expected to narrow to A$1900 million from A$2052 million in June. As for the U.S. economy it will not release any fundamentals on Monday, but Fed’s Fisher will speak on monetary policy in Dallas at 20:00 GMT.

EUR/CHF Technical Analysis for September 12, 2011

The EUR/CHF pair fell on Friday, but still remains above the Swiss National Bank’s official line in the sand at 1.20. The 200-day moving average did repel this pair, so unlike the USD/CHF – this pair is still technically in an adown trend according to some schools of technical analysis. The pair looks like it wants to fall, but the biggest thing you can learn from this chart is just how weak the Euro really is, as it is one of the few currencies to lose value against the Franc. We want to buy, but until Europe can get through the debt crisis – this pair is better left alone.

EUR/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 12, 2011

The EUR/CHF remains confined to a tight range and biased to the upside after the SNB move last week. The pair ended last week on a bullish note and on Monday the sentiment is not expected any different. The euro area starts the week quietly on Monday with investors looking for clues for the next move and the means to contain the debt crisis, where eyes will track the EU’s annual report on public finances which might have its effect on the market. After Trichet assured the change in the ECB stance and the strong euro weakness seen last Thursday the EUR/CHF remained resilient to market pressures and the SNB action kept the pair stable above 1.20 and the franc resisted the euro’s weakness and accordingly we see the pair more unbiased to the sentiment in the coming period which will keep the tight range trading evident.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis for September 12, 2011

NZD/USDfell hard on Friday, just as we suggested it would. The breaking of the bottom of Thursdays candle was the signal, and we fell fairly hard as a result. The 0.81 – 0.80 support zone is just below, and it appears that we are going to test it. However, we do expect a lot of support in that area. As a result, we aren’t suggesting selling this pair to our readers at this point. In fact, we would like to own this pair, but only if we see support hold. If not – we will wait to see a daily close below 0.80 in order to sell aggressively.

NZD/USD Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 12, 2011

The NZD/USD pair retreated last week as the strong US dollar dominated the pair’s movements. On the other hand, the absence of theNew Zealand’s fundamentals opened the way for the greenback to advance against the Kiwi. New Zealandcurrency (the Kiwi) dropped to the lowest in more than a week amid concern Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and a slowingU.S.economy will dent global growth, damping demand for higher-yielding assets. The US dollar was able to gain more momentum against other majors, as risk aversion and the unstable outlook for the U.S. economy increased demand for the greenback as a safe haven. TheNew Zealandeconomy witnessed some improvement in the second three months after the natural disaster that hit the economy. Yet, the European crisis with the sluggish US economy is still affecting the global economy at this time, and the New Zealand economy is one of the countries affected by this crisis. On Monday, the U.S. economy will not release any fundamentals, but Fed’s Fisher will speak on monetary policy in Dallas at 20:00 GMT.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis for September 12, 2011

The USD/JPYfell after first rising during the Friday session to form a hammer just above the all-important 77 handle. Because of this, we are getting more and more interested in perhaps going long this pair. The world is buying USD, and the Bank of Japan is fairly active in fighting the ascension of its currency. Because of this, we expect this pair to continue to rise, albeit in a fairly tight and grinding manner. 79-80 is massive resistance.

USD/JPY Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 12, 2011

The USD/JPY pair ended last week with gains, as the greenback soared against most of its major counterparts due to concerns over the global economic outlook, which drove investors to abandon risky assets and focus on the dollar as a refuge. Despite the weakening yen during last week, the Japanese currency is still near its post-war levels against the dollar, increasing bets that the BOJ could intervene in the FX market for the third time this year. On Monday at 23:50 GMT (Sunday), the Bank of Japan will release the August 4-5 Board Meeting minutes, when the Bank released extra measures to support the Japanese economy. At 23:50 GMT,Japanwill issue the Tertiary Industry Index for July, where it is expected to show a rise of 0.2% compare to the previous reading of 1.9%. As for the U.S. economy it will not release any fundamentals on Monday, but Fed’s Fisher will speak on monetary policy in Dallas at 20:00 GMT.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis for September 12, 2011

The GBP/USD pairfell hard on Friday after forming shooting star candles the previous two sessions. As we mentioned before, this is a bearish sign, and it finally triggered on Friday to produce sell signals. The real fight is below, at the bottom of the hammer formed in July which is roughly the 1.5750 level. If we can get below that mark, this pair falls apart and becomes a longer-term sell. The 1.6000 level should serve as resistance for the time being. We are selling raliies.

GBP/USD Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 12, 2011

Both economies will lack fundamentals and therefore the pair is expected to follow the general direction in the market. The GBP/USD may continue its drop if data from the U.K. or other global economies remained bearish as it will increase the appeal of the dollar as a safe haven. On the hand, the dollar may remain boosted by the $447 billion jobs stimulus plan proposed by president Obama the pervious week. This week, the main attention will be on inflation data from both economies as it will give an update about inflation status amid expectations that there might be monetary intervention by the Fed on Sep. 20-21 meeting and by the BoE later in the year.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis for September 12, 2011

USD/CADrose on Friday as traders sold off the risk currencies around the world. The oil markets dipped as well, and this always spells trouble for the Loonie. The pair remains below the parity level however, (a major resistance area) and as a result – we aren’t ready to buy just yet. In fact, our signals have been coming from the CL and COIL contracts lately. If the CL (Light Sweet Crude) can break above the $90 mark, this pair falls hard. If it cannot, and breaks below the $80 mark – this pair becomes a buy, and will more than likely rally somewhat significantly.

USD/CAD Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 12, 2011

The USD/CAD pair rose sharply on Friday, where pessimism dominated markets amid doubts the U.S. Congress will pass Obama’s $447 billion jobs stimulus plan. Moreover, Canada released the jobs report on Friday, where the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly in August to 7.3% from 7.2% in July, which put huge downside pressure on the CAD, sending the USD/CAD pair higher. Markets will be following the developments from the G7 meeting over the weekend, while eyes will be also watching any developments regarding Obama’s jobs stimulus plans and whether the Congress would approve it or not. Monday August 12: We don’t have any economic news from either country on Monday; however, attention will be towards the weekend’s G7 meeting.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis for September 12, 2011

The USD/CHF pairrose on Friday, and continues to hover above the 200-day moving average. Most traders recognise a breaking of the 200-day moving average as a trend change, and we certainly noticed the breaking of the weekly trend line a few sessions ago. Now we simply are waiting to get that pullback that allows the rest of us to get in. The pair has moved over 1,000 pips in the past couple of days, so that pullback is highly likely. If we get it – we would love to buy between 0.83 and 0.85.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for September 12, 2011

Both economies will lack fundamentals and therefore the pair is expected to follow the general direction in the market. After the intervention seen last week by the SNB when it surprisingly decided to set a target for the franc versus the euro at 1.20 to curb the franc’s runaway and its pledge to “enforce this minimum rate with the utmost determination and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities,” further appreciation in the pair is expected as the several interventions showed the seriousness of the bank to halt the franc’s rally thereby reducing its appeal. On the other hand, the dollar may remain boosted by the $447 billion jobs stimulus plan proposed by president Obama the previous week. Later in the week, the main attention will be on inflation data from both economies as it will give an update about the inflation status amid expected interventions by the SNB, to support the ceiling target and possible introduction of new stimulus by the U.S. to boost growth.

 

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