EUR/USD Technical Analysis for September 6, 2011
The EUR/USD pair fell again on Monday as traders reacted to the losses suffered in German elections by Merkel’s party. The party is paying the cost of continually pressing for the bailout of the rest of Europe. This brings up very serious questions as to whether the Germans will continue to back the bailouts. Granted, this last election was a minor one, but if this is a signal on the larger ones coming – Europe could be in serious trouble. While we like selling the Euro, it looks as if a bounce is in order as the 1.41 level seems to produce them for the time being against the USD, mainly because the US isn’t in great shape either. We expect a continuation of range bound conditions in this market for the time being. (1.40 – 1.45)
AUD/USD Technical Analysis for September 6, 2011
The AUD/USD pairfell on Monday, but bounced in the later hours of the session to form a candle that looks suspiciously like a hammer. The 1.05 support level seems to be holding, and if it does – we will certainly see higher prices. The candle isn’t a classic hammer, as the body is a bit too long, but we are seeing buyers come in at these levels, or at least sellers laying off of the markets. Either will make this pair rise, and as long as we are above the 1.05 level, we are willing to buy dips on the shorter time frames.
EUR/CHF Technical Analysis for September 6, 2011
The EUR/CHF pairfell on Monday, but is doing something worth noting at this point. The pair is forming a hammer-shaped candle at the 1.10 level again. The area looks like it might be a “line in the sand” as dictated by the Swiss National Bank. While this is almost always a losing battle in the end, there could be a trading opportunity for the time being. We like buying on a break of the Monday highs and aiming for the 1.15 level. A breaking of the 1.10 level on a daily close would be extremely bearish and would present a selling signal that could get the Swiss central bankers involved again.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis for September 6, 2011
NZD/USDlooks bearish to say the least. However, it should be noted that the long red candle is presently in the centre of a large cluster of orders to the left, and should find this area quite a bit more challenging than the 100 pips or so above it. The pair is massively bullish overall, but the last high being lower than the one before has us laying off this pair for a while. It appears that the most likely scenario is consolidation at this time, albeit in a fairly wide range – perhaps form 0.8000 to 0.8500 or so. A breaking of the 0.8600 barrier becomes a bullish signal in this market, as a breaking below the 0.8000 level is very bearish.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis for September 6, 2011
USD/JPYcontinues to sit still at the 76.50 area, as traders weigh out the possibilities of a global recession. The pair should be falling as the USD/JPY is somewhat sensitive to the ill of the West, but the truth is the Bank of Japan has been very vocal about its displeasure in the rising Yen. Because of this, the pair seems to have a floor at 76 and a ceiling at 77. It is going to be a scalper’s market for a while.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis for September 6, 2011
GBP/USDfell again on Monday, but the resulting candle is looking more and more like a pseudo-hammer, and as such we feel that a bounce might be in the cards. Add to that the fact that the support in this pair has been from 1.58 to 1.61 recently, and you have a recipe for just that. We are ultimately bearish on this pair, but for the time being it looks like it will stay in consolidation and perhaps rise as high as 1.64 in the near-term. We would buy on a break of the Monday highs, while selling is very difficult until we get below 1.58 or so.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis for September 6, 2011
The USD/CAD pairspent most of the day on Monday rising in value. However, there are several things that are coming together at the 0.99 level currently that show a possible bearish push in the near-term. The area has been resistance recently and certainly has the parity level just above acting as even more resistance. The Stochastic is looking overbought at these levels, and suggests a fall. The area does look like a range bound market, and as such we use a range bound indicator like this. We expect support to come into play at the 0.98 level, but this market could offer a short-term trading opportunity for traders as it falls. If we break above the parity level on the close of a daily candle, we could get very bullish, but until then, we assume it is more of the same in this pair.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis for September 6, 2011
USD/CHF is a pair that has many different forces interacting at one time to persuade its movement. The purple trend line on the chart is the weekly one, and you can see it repelled the bulls in this pair a few days ago. However, the Friday candle was a hammer right at a gap. This pair has a central bank, the Swiss National Bank, pushing it higher with various strategies as well. With the massive trend pushing down, and the SNB pushing up – it isn’t surprising that we are seeing so many conflicting signals at one time. A breaking of the 0.83 level has us both past the trend line and major resistance. We are a long way from there, but it really would take that to clear all the hurdles ahead of it. A breaking of Friday’s lows gets the bears back in control, but only until 0.7500 where we expect a lot of support. Also, the SNB could intervene in several different ways at any time. Because of this, the USD/CHF pair isn’t high on our list of favourite pairs at the moment.
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