Forex Technical Analysis for September 27, 2011

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for September 27, 2011

EUR/USD had a wild back and forth day on Monday as traders continue to weigh everything European. The end of the US session received an announcement that the Europeans are in the middle of formulating a large-scale funding structure to recapitalize the EU’s banks. This lead to a rebound in the currency pair, and it even formed a hammer for the day at the 1.35 level. This shows that the level is going to be tough support, and a bounce is more likely than not at this point. However, until we get more clarity out of the EU, this pair will remain pressured to the downside, effectively slowing any potential gains. We would buy on a break of the highs from Monday, but would be quick to move protective stops up in the case of bad news. A breaking of the lows form Monday is a massively bearish sign.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis for September 27, 2011

AUD/USDfell hard on Monday, but managed a large bounce in the US session to form a hammer at the 0.97 support level. The level looks like it is going to produce a bounce, and this would not be unexpected in the big scheme of things. This area is going to be a sort of “last stand” for the Aussie, as if it gives way – the pair would fall much, much farther at this point. However, even if we do pop to the upside from here, we see the parity level just above as massive resistance at this point and would be quick to take any profits in the case of a long position. For the most part, we are content to wait until parity to short this pair on signs of weakness.

EUR/CHF Technical Analysis for September 27, 2011

EUR/CHF fell on Monday as traders sold the Euro off in general. However, in the later hours there was an announcement that a plan was in the works to shore up the European banks. This lead to a leg up in the Euro, and this pair gained back some of its losses for the day. None-the-less, it still looks very slow in its movement, and as such we don’t suggest trading it just yet. Shorting isn’t possible with the Swiss National Bank waiting to intervene, and the situation in the EU is still too cloudy to buy this pair. For the time being, we are leaving it alone.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis for September 27, 2011

NZD/USDfell on Monday, only to turn around completely and form a hammer at the close. The pair looks like a pop is coming, and this could lead to a short-term trading opportunity. We still think the 0.80 level is one that should give this pair a reaction – as it was such strong support previously. The pair could pop, and then continue its fall from that level. As a general rule, we feel much safer shorting form the 0.80 level on signs of weakness, but a small long position could be taken on a break of the Monday highs until we get there.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis for September 27, 2011

USD/JPYhad a fairly quiet day again on Monday, with a slightly negative bias to it. The pair is still being held afloat in the 76 area, as traders simply haven’t been able to test the resolve of the Bank of Japan openly. The central bank is rumoured to be clandestinely intervening around the area, so shorting isn’t advised. We would be interested in buying, but only on signs of strength, of which there haven’t been any lately.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis for September 27, 2011

GBP/USD had a strong day on Monday as traders bought risk around the globe. The cable popped back over the all-important 1.55 handle, and it looks like the area is going to be massively supportive at this point. The pair looks like it is ready for a bounce, but with the way it has acted recently, we still prefer selling at this point. However, we will need to see weakness at higher levels from which to sell now that we have made this bounce.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis for September 27, 2011

USD/CADrose back above the 1.03 handle on Monday, only to fall back below it later in the session. The rebound that the oil markets saw certainly played a part in this, and the pair looks like it needs to bounce around between parity and the 1.03 level for a while. This should lead to range bound trading for the next few session, with those areas being some kind of “barrier” in the meantime. Watch the oil markets – when they go up – this pair falls. When they fall – this one goes up.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis for September 27, 2011

USD/CHFrose a bit during the Monday session, only to be repelled for the second time in three sessions. The 0.9000 level sits just below, and it looks like it wants to hold this pair up at this point. Since the Swiss National Bank is actively working against the Franc, we wouldn’t short this pair anyway. We are waiting for a supportive candle at the 0.9000 level from which to buy. If that doesn’t appear – we would be even more interested in buying at the 0.88 level if we get the chance.


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