Forex Technical Analysis for September 22, 2011

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for September 22, 2011

The EUR/USD pair rose before the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday announcement, filling the gap from the weekend. The pair then fell apart as the announcement wasn’t overly optimistic and disappointed as the Fed didn’t do much to boost the economy. In a sense, this was the Fed telling everyone that they were on their own. With the uncertain environment, the first trade is to buy the USD. The 1.35 level is just below, and that will be the site of the real battle. If it gives way – we fall much, much farther at that point. A bounce could be interesting in so much as to sell the rally as there are simply far too many issues in Europe to buy the Euro at any point. With the global economy looking weaker and weaker, buying the USD will be the way to go overall.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis for September 22, 2011

The AUD/USD pair fell hard on Wednesday as the Fed’s underwhelming assessment of the global economy spooked the markets. With the Aussie being so sensitive to market sentiment and global risk taking – it naturally fell. More importantly is the fact that we are now approaching the parity level. If this level gives, the AUD/USD could suddenly turn very bearish as the world’s economy falters. Because of this we are going to wait to see if we get a daily close under this market. The last time we were here – it bounced, but it didn’t bounce as high. If we get that sub-parity close we are selling and selling aggressively.

EUR/CHF Technical Analysis for September 22, 2011

The EUR/CHF pair rose on Wednesday, and then fell later as the Euro in general took losses after the Federal Reserve’s disappointing statement. The pair has a floor in it at 1.20, but the pair looks likely to fall a bit from here as the daily candle looks much like a shooting star at this point. The 1.20 level could be tested, but we want no part of the challenge against the SNB at this point. We think this pair may return to barely moving for a while at this point in time.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis for September 22, 2011

The NZD/USD pair fell hard as the markets were rocked by the Federal Reserve’s lack of easing or “shock and awe” on Wednesday. The pair has reached the 0.8000 level, and this is important as it is such significant support. If this area holds – we could see another large bounce. It happened last time we fell down to test it, but it should be mentioned that the bounce produced a lower high than the previous one. Because of this, we are expecting this pair to fall hard in the near future. In the mean time, we are selling rallies of any substantial amount, as well as selling a daily close below the 0.8000 level.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis for September 22, 2011

USD/JPY fell during the early part of the Wednesday session, but rebounded in the later hours as the Fed had an announcement that quite frankly – wasn’t all that optimistic. The pair also had a strange spike just above the 76 handle in Asia, and a lot of traders are speculating that there was a small push or budge by the Bank of Japan. We have been saying selling this pair is going to be difficult, and with the action on Wednesday, it is becoming more and clearer this pair is a buy only one – someday.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis for September 22, 2011

GBP/USD fell hard once the Fed announced a weaker than expected outlook for the economy on Wednesday. The Bank of England is expected to move towards easing, and with the Fed not bothering to step into the markets in a big way, this pair fell hard as the USD gained value. The 1.55 support level was seen in just a few short hours, and now we are going to see which way this pair wants to run. This area should be support – but if it gives way easily – this pair goes much, much lower. We would sell rallies at this point, but would also be forced to short if we can stay below 1.55 for any substantial length of time.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis for September 22, 2011

The USD/CAD pairrose above the parity level and even above our 1.0050 resistance level on Wednesday. The pair now looks like it wants to continue the march north, and as long as the global outlook remains weak, this could threaten the CAD and oil as well. (A bit of a double whammy) The pair is still going counter trend, but the pair will move rapidly when shocks to the economy become apparent. The highs are getting higher at this point, and we want to buy as long as we can stay above 1.0050 or so.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis for September 22, 2011

The USD/CHF pairrose on Wednesday as traders continue to buy the USD as a safe haven trade. With the Swiss National Bank actively jawboning and working against the Franc, this makes sense as the Dollar truly is the last “safety trade”. The Federal Reserve disappointed with the announcement, and as a result – the world buys the Dollar. The Swiss Franc cannot be bought as it is capped at this point by the SNB, so this trade should continue to work to the upside for the foreseeable future. The 0.9000 level could cause a bit of a pullback, but parity is probably in the cards at this point.

 

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