Forex Technical Analysis for September 21, 2011

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for September 21, 2011

EUR/USDrose during the early hours of the trading session, but fell a bit towards the end of the day on Tuesday as the news got out that the ECB, IMF, and ECB – the financiers of all things Greek bailout-related, are not going to be heading back to Athens until October. Because of this, there is a fair amount of speculation that the Greeks may not be coming as close to an agreement as once thought. The pair fell a bit, and to be honest, there are simply far too many landmines out there in order for us to buy this pair. The gap at the open of the week shows where this pair wants to go. We expect support at 1.35, but that area will almost undoubtedly be tested, and we expect it to give way in the end.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis for September 21, 2011

AUD/USD rose during the Tuesday session, but gave up a lot of its gains in the afternoon of the US session. The reports that the IMF, EU, and ECB (the “Troika”) are waiting until October to come to Athens and try to work out a deal has the markets spooked in late day trading, and as a result – the Aussie gets sold off. The pair looks weak, but we cannot sell for anything more than a scalp until the parity level gets violated on a daily close. The upside is there to 1.05, but it has been falling rather quickly every time it rallies, so because of this – we prefer to sell those rallies until we get above 1.05 or so.

EUR/CHF Technical Analysis for September 21, 2011

The EUR/CHF pair rose on rumours that the Swiss National Bank is going to announce a peg to 1.25 of the currency pair. The Franc is far overbought, even with the recent sell off in the Swissy. This means that the pair could very easily rise and traders are simply trying to get ahead of the move it the SNB does in fact announce this. If they don’t there is a real chance of this pair falling back down towards 1.20, but that area should hold as the SNB has made it their “line in the sand”. Because of this, we only buy, and would either do so on a dip, or a break above the 1.2225 area.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis for September 21, 2011

The NZD/USD pairhad a wild day as traders sent the Kiwi back and forth on Tuesday. The pair looks like it is far too choppy at this point to get long or short to be frank about it. The 0.8000 level below is almost certainly going to be massive support that will be difficult to break down through, but the 0.8500 level above looks massively resistant. The pair looks like it will be a victim of news flow out of the EU in the mean time, and any bad news simply tears down gains far too fast. Because of this, we are willing to avoid this market for a few days until it settles down.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis for September 21, 2011

USD/JPY fell on Tuesday as word got out that the “Troika” was going to wait until October to head back to Athens in order to discuss a bailout. This could suggest that the process is going even slower than expected, and could spell trouble for the world’s financial markets. This leads to traders trying to find “safe haven” trades, and the Yen is one of the favourites. However, with the Bank of Japan so unhappy about current levels in this pair, we feel it is far too dangerous to short this pair at this level. The pair can only be bought at this point, and quite frankly we aren’t seeing any reason to do that either.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis for September 21, 2011

GBP/USDrose on Tuesday as traders bought the Pound in general. The move is decidedly counter trend to the recent fall, and because of this we are currently waiting to see if the gap from the weekend closes before trading it. The 1.58 level should prove to be resistive, and if it shows weakness – we are shorting cable. A new low would also have the same connotations for our trading as well. We are not interested in buying this pair as it looks absolutely broken at this point.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis for September 21, 2011

The USD/CAD pairfell for a while on Tuesday, but then rose as traders sold off commodities and stocks in the late hours of the session. The Canadian dollar suffered as a result as it is considered a “risky” currency. The pair looks like it is set on trying to break to the parity level, but we are not convinced yet of the bullishness of it. The daily close above the 1.0050 mark is needed to be seen for us to buy, and selling is possible towards parity – but we need to see a weak candle in order to do so. For the time being, we can only assume that the consolidation area will remain intact.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis for September 21, 2011

Tuesday saw the USD/CHF pair rise slightly, as the rumours of a Swiss National Bank meeting hit wires. The SNB is rumoured to be considering raising the floor on the EUR/CHF to the 1.25 level, and this would cause a massive exodus out of the Franc. If this does come to pass, the USD/CHF would certainly move in tandem. The Franc cannot be bought, under any circumstance at this point in time. The pair could fall back if the rumours prove untrue, but the SNB is still under this pair. Because of this, buying is your only choice now in this pair. The technical set up does look rather bullish at this point, so buying a small position could be a decent long-term play.

 

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