Forex Technical Analysis for September 20, 2011

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for September 20, 2011

EUR/USD fell hard on an opening gap on Monday, but bounced hard as rumours of the Greeks and the “Troika” are close to an agreement for the second tranche of the bailout money that the Greeks need. This gave a lift to the Euro overall, and sets us up for a possible “filling of the gap”, as most technical traders know that they tend to be filled. However, we feel that any pop in this pair is a shorting possibility, not a long-term buy and hold type of trade. We are very interested in seeing what it does at the 1.38 level.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis for September 20, 2011

AUD/USDfell hard on Monday, and unlike the rest of the “risk currencies”, it didn’t bounce that much at the end of the session, or at least a lot less than these types of currencies. With that being stated, we no longer like the Aussie as much as other currencies such as the Kiwi dollar, or other riskier currencies. While this doesn’t mean this pair will fall much, it does suggest that there are other pairs that should perform better than this one. Having said all of that, we can’t sell until we get a daily close below parity, and aren’t necessarily excited about buying this pair as the gap hasn’t been filled from the morning, and the 1.05 area should be massively resistive.

EUR/CHF Technical Analysis for September 20, 2011

The EUR/CHF pair is simply dead these days. In fact, the Swiss National Bank has made sure of that. The SNB’s line in the sand of 1.20 continues to hold, and it should for the foreseeable future. Understanding this gives us the following set up: If Europe can come up with a solution to the Greek debt problems, as well as do something about the rest of the indebted countries that are in trouble, we now have a floor to trade from in this pair, and by extension – a bottom from which to buy it. Until then, we think this pair will simply sit here.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis for September 20, 2011

NZD/USDfell on Monday, but bounced later to form a hammer just above the 0.82 level. This looks bullish for the Kiwi, and we suspect there will be another push to reach 0.84 in the near term. The currency is presently outperforming its cousin the Aussie dollar, and this shows that New Zealand might be the place to be in the event of positive markets overall. (The commodity trade could come into play at this point.) If we get a bounce in the world’s markets, the Kiwi could be the place to be. A breaking of the 0.80 level wipes out any longs in our opinion. Until that happens, we can only buy when support shows itself like it did on Monday.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis for September 20, 2011

USD/JPYfell on Monday as traders continue to look for safe havens. However, the Bank of Japan has been very supportive of this pair lately, and one has to think that it is only a matter of time before we see some kind of intervention if we get below the 76 handle. The market cannot be sold until after we get this intervention that so many are expecting, as it gives us a much higher level to short from. The market can be bought, but you are going to have to be very patient as it is moving at a standstill these days.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis for September 20, 2011

The GBP/USD pairfell hard at the open on Monday, but managed a significant bounce back in the US session. This shows that there is continued support for the Pound, even as it keeps making new lows. The tone of this downtrend has been shown to be a grinding nature, and not a quick moving market. Because of this, we suggest selling rallies instead of holding onto the short position you may have as it will be whippy over the next several weeks in our opinion. We see no credible reason to go long this pair, as it has broken down below the all-important 1.5750 area, and convincingly so. The pair will be difficult to trade at times, but we still feel the downtrend is going to continue overall.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis for September 20, 2011

The USD/CAD pairshot straight up on Monday as traders continue to push it around in the consolidation box it has been stuck in for over a month. The pair looks like it is simply trying to make up its mind about the world economy, as this pair closely follows oil. Oil is a prime example of a market that is very sensitive to economic growth, and if we see a pop in oil prices, this pair could fall hard as demand for Canadian dollars will be greatly increased. However, we feel that this pair will continue to shift back and forth in this consolidation range for the near term, and is more of a scalping pair at this point.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis for September 20, 2011

USD/CHFrose after gapping on the open Monday, but retraced a lot of that move as the markets settled down in the US afternoon. This pair is being supported by the Swiss National Bank, so selling isn’t really worth being bothered with. The pair is a buy only, and we are waiting to see if we get a pullback to the support zone we have on the chart. (0.83 – 0.85) Until we get into that area, it will be difficult to buy this pair, unless of course we can break the recent highs.


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