Here’s a great paragraph on emerging markets from Kit Juckes of SocGen:
There has been a shift in the balance of global growth as Chinese demand for raw material wanes, and as higher wages and strong currencies make many EM economies less competitive. Meanwhile, the Fed policy cycle IS turning, and 4 years of capital being pushed out in a quest for less derisory yields, are ending. This isn’t a repeat of the 1990s Asian crises, because domestic conditions are completely different but it is a turn in the global market cycle. We need to transition from a world where investment is pushed out of the US/Europe/Japan to one where it is pulled in by attractive prospects. When that happens, flows will be differentiated much more from one country (em or otherwise) to another. But for now, we’re just waiting for global capital flows to calm down. In the meantime, We’ll watch the high-beta assets and currencies rally, and we’ll wait to sell again. Core G10FX views (more weakness ahead for the AUD and CAD) are unchanged.
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