The 23 Governments That Could Get Crushed By Food Price Inflation

Lebanon

Photo: AP

Food price inflation is wreaking havoc across the world, and it’s getting worse. The UN just reported prices rose to an all time high in February and look likely to head higher still because of rising energy costs.Those energy prices are being driven higher by revolutions in the Middle East, where the Egyptian and Tunisian governments have been overthrown, Libya is on the brink, and many more are under threat. One of the root causes of civil unrest in the region is the food price inflation rioters are now exacerbating.

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Nomura produced a research report detailing the countries that would be crushed in a food crisis. Tunisia and Egypt both make the list, and have been overthrown. Libya also makes the cut, and its government is barely holding on. Other list members like Lebanon, Algeria, Morocco, and China have experienced protests and or political change.

Nomura’s description of a food crisis is a prolonged price spike. Bank analysts calculate the countries that have the most to lose using a formula that includes:

  • Nominal GDP per capita in USD at market exchange rates.
  • The share of food in total household consumption.
  • Net food exports as a percentage of GDP.

#25 Venezuela

GDP per capita in USD: $11,246

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 32.6%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.0%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#24 Vietnam

GDP per capita in USD: $1,051

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 50.7%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): 0.8%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#23 Latvia

GDP per capita in USD: $14,908

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 34.3%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.1%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#22 China - Already experiencing protests

GDP per capita in USD: $3,267

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 39.8%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.3%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#21 India

GDP per capita in USD: $1,017

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 49.5%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): 0.3%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#20 Ukraine

GDP per capita in USD: $3,899

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 61.0%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): 0.9%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#19 Bulgaria

GDP per capita in USD: $6,546

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 49.5%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.1%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#18 Tunisia - Revolution overthrew government

GDP per capita in USD: $3,903

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 36.0%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.1%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#17 Dominican Republic

GDP per capita in USD: $4,576

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 38.3%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.1%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#16 Libya - Country on the brink of a civil war

GDP per capita in USD: $14,802

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 37.2%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.7%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#15 Pakistan

GDP per capita in USD: $991

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 47.6%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.4%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#14 Kenya

GDP per capita in USD: $783

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 45.8%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.8%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#13 Philippines

GDP per capita in USD: $1,847

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 45.6%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.0%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#12 Romania

GDP per capita in USD: $9,300

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 49.4%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.1%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#11 Angola

GDP per capita in USD: $4,714

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 46.1%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.4%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#10 Azerbaijan

GDP per capita in USD: $5,315

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 60.2%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.6%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#9 Hong Kong

GDP per capita in USD: $30,863

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 25.8%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -4.4%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#8 Sudan

GDP per capita in USD: $1,353

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 52.9%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -1.3%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#7 Sri Lanka

GDP per capita in USD: $2,013

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 39.6%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -2.7%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#6 Egypt - Protesters kicked out President Mubarak

GDP per capita in USD: $1,991

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 48.1%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -2.1%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#5 Lebanon - Protests continue to rage

GDP per capita in USD: $6,978

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 34.0%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -3.9%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#4 Nigeria

GDP per capita in USD: $1,370

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 73.0%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -0.9%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#3 Algeria - Protests continue against the government

GDP per capita in USD: $4,845

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 53.0%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -2.8%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#2 Morocco - Protests call for parliamentary change

GDP per capita in USD: $2,769

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 63.0%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -2.1%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

#1 Bangladesh

GDP per capita in USD: $497

Food as a percentage of total household consumption: 53.8%

Net food exports (as percentage of GDP): -3.3%

Note: Nomura's index is calculated using these three variables. The higher per capita GDP, the better the number, as consumers have more to spend. The lower percentage of income spent on food, the better. And the more food exported, the better, as it means there is excess for domestic consumption.

Source: Nomura

What happens when the riots begin?

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