Presenting: Your Fedapalooza Survival Kit

aid survival kit

Photo: Wikipedia

Today’s the day!For the first time in history, the Fed chairman will hold a press conference following the FOMC meeting.

So let’s quickly go over what to expect, so that you’re fully prepared.

First, the schedule.

The actual FOMC policy statement comes out at 12:30 PM ET, which is earlier than normal.

Usually the statement comes out at 2:15, which is when Bernanke will start his unprecedented 45-minute press conference.

Meanwhile, we’re expected at the press conference to get revisions to the Fed’s economic forecast. EVERYONE expects it to lower its existing forecast.

Via Calculated Risk, here’s a look at existing Fed forecasts.

forecast

Photo: Calculated Risk

Meanwhile, everyone is trying to figure out how markets will react to various possible comments, whether they big dovish or hawkish.

Theoretically, an indication that QE is coming to an end should firm the dollar, but others argue that any vagueness on the part of the Fed will be another excuse to sell the dollar, which is hitting brand new multi-year lows.

As for the press conference itself, nobody really knows how it will go. We’ll probably get a mix of inane and serious questions, just like at Trichet pressers. Alephblog has a great 16 Questions for Bernanke (that probably won’t get asked).

Meanwhile, we have our own predictions for the day, which you can see here.

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