Unrest in Egypt raises questions about the future political make-up of that country and broader stability in the Middle East.
James A. Baker, III, Former Secretary Of State: You can bet your life that there are a lot of people who are worried in Israel. When you have a Muslim Brotherhood official come out, as we saw a day or so ago, and say if Mubarak goes, you will see war between Egypt and Israel, that’s pretty tough stuff. And Egypt is the foundation block for so many Arab countries. They’re the biggest Arab country. They’ve been a leader, they have 80-five million people. So this is a very, very dangerous situation. The jury’s still out on what the end result’s going to be here. Read More
Jami Miscik, ex CIA and president of Kissinger Associates: Clients want to know how the unrest could spread. I’m telling them that authoritarian leaders everywhere, including in Russia and China, are worried. The Yemeni President announced he will step down in 2013 and that his son will not stand for election. Others such as King Abdullah of Jordan are trying to take preemptive steps like replacing their entire cabinets…Algeria is still vulnerable. As is Libya, where Qaddafi has been in power since 1969 and is seen as increasingly out of touch. Qaddafi is at risk especially if the military thinks he’s no longer worth protecting. The Gulf States, including Qatar and the UAE, look better because people there believe that the leadership is tending to their economic needs. In Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah is still popular and is seen as a reformer. Read More
Eurasia Group’s Middle East practice: Particularly if Hosni Mubarak is forced from power, other authoritarian regimes in the region will be at risk. The most vulnerable are Jordan, Yemen, Algeria, and Bahrain. Read More
Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer at Pacific Investment Management Co.: We are seeing a paradigm shift in Egypt right now… A better historical example would be the Philippines, rather than Iran… How Egypt evolves in the next few days and weeks matters a great deal — and not just for Egyptians but also for the world economy… With its control over the Suez Canal, Egypt is a major gatekeeper of global trade…We are in a world where the unthinkable becomes a reality pretty quickly,” he said. “Investors have to secure their real purchasing power and they have to understand how to calculate the expected real purchasing power. If you are investing on the basis of fundamentals, there’s a lot of value out there when there is an unanticipated shock. Read More
Senator John Kerry (D-MA), Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Senator John McCain (R-AZ), Ranking Member of the Senate Armed Services Committee. Read More
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