It would seem that the BCS Championship picture is pretty clear with just one week and the conference title games remaining. But the folks over at the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective have developed a model that shows which outsiders still have some hope.Here are the contenders, and what they need to happen…
LSU and Alabama
This is the easy one. If LSU beats Arkansas and wins the SEC Championship game, and Alabama beats Auburn, we will get a rematch of the “Game of the Century.” Yawn.
There is some speculation that if LSU loses to Arkansas, we would still have a rematch between 1-loss LSU and 1-loss Alabama. But according the model produced by Harvard Sports Analysis, Arkansas would jump up to number one and play Alabama in the title game (assuming Alabama beats Auburn and wins SEC Championship game).
Oklahoma State still has a shot, but they need help. In addition to a win over Oklahoma, the Cowboys would need Auburn to beat Alabama. In that scenario, Oklahoma State jumps up to number two ahead of Virginia Tech and Stanford.
Virginia Tech needs even more help. First things first. The Hokies need to beat Virginia on Saturday and then beat Clemson in the ACC title game. If that happens, they also need Alabama to lose to Auburn and Oklahoma State to lose to Oklahoma. If all of that happens, Va Tech will likely get the nod over Stanford.
The Big Losers
According the model, there is no scenario in which Stanford, Boise State, or Houston can move up into the top two spots of the BCS. Better luck next year guys.
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