The 15 Best Housing Markets For The Next Five Years

tucson, arizona

Photo: Wikimedia Commons

Home prices are expected to bottom later this year after falling nearly 35 per cent from their 2006 peak, according to the latest data from Fiserv Case-Shiller.They also note that housing is more affordable now than it has been at any time in the last four decades.

We drew on Fiserv Case-Shiller data to identify the best housing markets for the next five years.

The 15 cities are ranked by the projected annualized change in home prices between Q4 2011 and 2016. We also included the median home price, median household income, unemployment rate, and the change in home prices since their peak to give a better scope of the housing market.

Note: Data median family income and home price data is for Q4 2011. Unemployment data is for February 2012, and population and households data is for 2010.

Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, California

Annualized expected growth from 2011 - 2016:
7.4 per cent

Home prices have declined 51.0 per cent in the Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta metro area since they peaked in Q3 2005. The median home price is $266,000 which is much higher than the national median of $163,000.

The metro's 8.3 per cent unemployment rate is in line with the national average, and it has a median household income of $68,800 above the national median of $63,000.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Port St. Lucie, Florida

Annualized expected growth from 2011 - 2016:
7.5 per cent

Home prices have fallen 55.8 per cent in the Port St. Lucie metro area since their peak in Q1 2006. It has an unemployment rate of 11.0 per cent and a median family income of $51,700 that is higher than the national median.

The median home price in Port St. Luice is $130,000.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Modesto, California

Annualized expected growth from 2011 - 2016:
7.5 per cent

Modesto home prices have dived 64.4 per cent since their Q1 2006 peak, and the current median home price is $141,000, well below the national median of $163,000. But the city has an extremely high unemployment rate of 15.7 per cent and a median family income of $54,800.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Sante Fe, New Mexico

Annualized expected growth from 2011 - 2016:
7.6 per cent

Santa Fe's home prices have tumbled 17.1 per cent since their Q4 2007 peak. It has a low unemployment rate of 5.8 per cent and a median household income of $59,400.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama City Beach, Florida

Annualized expected growth from 2011 - 2016:
7.6 per cent

Panama City has a median home price of $138,000, and its home prices are down 42.0 per cent from their Q1 2006 peak. The metro has an unemployment rate of 8.3 per cent in line with the national average, and a median household income of $56,200.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Eugene-Springfield, Oregon

Annualized expected growth from 2011 - 2016:
7.9 per cent

Home prices in the Eugene-Springfield metro area have slipped 21.2 per cent since their Q2 2007 peak. The metro has an unemployment rate of 8.3 per cent and a median household income of $53,300, which is below the national median.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Sebastian-Vero Beach, Florida

Annualized expected growth from 2011 - 2016:
8.1 per cent

The Sebastian-Vero Beach metro area has a median home price of $135,000, below the national median, and home prices have declined 52.0 per cent since their Q4 2005 peak.

At 10.8 per cent, the unemployment rate is higher than the national average. The median family income of $58,500, is below the national median of $63,000.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Tucson, Arizona

Annualized expected growth from 2011 - 2016:
8.2 per cent

Tucson's home prices have plummeted 45.8 per cent since their peak in Q1 2006. The median price of a Tucson home is $142,000. It has an unemployment rate of 7.8 per cent, below the national average, and a median household income of $57,200.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Bend, Oregon

Annualized expected growth from 2011 - 2016:
8.8 per cent

Home prices in Bend are down 43.6 per cent from their Q1 2007 peak. But Bend has a high unemployment rate of 11.3 per cent and its median family income of $56,800 is lower than the national median of $63,000.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Florida

Annualized expected growth from 2011 - 2016:
8.8 per cent

The Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach home prices have fallen 53.5 per cent since their Q1 2006 peak, which could make it a good time to invest. The median cost of a home is $108,000 which is below the national median home price of $163,000. But the metro has an unemployment rate of 9.5 per cent and a median family income of $55,100.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Ocala, Florida

Annualized expected growth from 2011 - 2016:
9.1 per cent

Home prices in Ocala have plunged 52.1 per cent since they peaked in Q3 2006, and the city has a median home price of $95,000. Ocala does however have a high unemployment rate of 10.4 per cent and a median family income of $44,500, well below the national median.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Lakeland-Winter Haven, Florida

Annualized expected growth from 2011 - 2016:
9.2 per cent

The Lakeland-Winter Haven metro area has a median home price of $105,000, and home prices have declined 55.8 per cent since their Q2 2006 peak. At 10.2 per cent, the unemployment rate is higher than the national average of 8.3 per cent, and the median family income of $49,700, is below the national median of $63,000.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Napa, California

Annualized expected growth from 2011 - 2016:
9.7 per cent

Napa has an unemployment rate of 8.2 per cent and a median family income of $77,400, above the national average. It has a median home price of $330,000 and prices have fallen 51.7 per cent since they peaked in Q1 2006.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Madera-Chowchilla, California

Annualized expected growth from 2011 - 2016:
10.3 per cent

Madera-Chowchilla has a population 152,925 and a high unemployment rate of 14.4 per cent. The metro has a median family income of $52,500 and its homes prices are down 53.1 per cent from their Q3 2006 peak.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

Medford, Oregon

Annualized expected growth from 2011 - 2016:
11.5 per cent

Medford's home prices have fallen 37.1 per cent since their peak in Q2 2006. The metro has a population of 204,822 and median family income of $49,700. At 10.8 per cent Medford's unemployment rate is higher than the national average.

Data provided by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes

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