We told you earlier how Finland may not take down the Portuguese bailout, but there’s still reason to believe their government’s actions could set off a chain reaction that brings down the currency union, according to Der Spiegel.Finland may be able to back out of participating in the Portuguese bailout, without saying no to it happening. Instead, they’ll just be able to avoid paying for it.
What happens then, according to Der Spiegel, is what really counts. The remainder of the eurozone’s leaders might get together and stand behind Portugal, with AAA rated countries like Germany and France giving more cash. OR, the move by Finland could lead to the spread of right-wing, euro-scepticism across the continent, and if not stop the Portuguese bailout, prevent the new bailout fund, the ESM, from being approved.
The right’s rise in Europe is already well evidenced. The Finnish example could act as a political trigger which turns every future eurozone election into a referendum on bailouts.
The first big one to watch would be France in April 2012. There Marine Le Pen, head of the Front National, is already rising in the polls. Sarkozy, the centre right candidate, is sinking, while IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn looks likely to run as the socialist candidate.
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