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There is a fair amount of investor anxiety about rising interest rates. “When interest rates are rising, it means that bond prices are falling,” said Brian Scott at Vanguard. “And that typically, unless you’re earning a lot of income in your portfolio, that’s going to generate losses in the short term for bond investors.”
“But the silver lining to rising interest rates is that if you’re continuing to make new purchases of bonds, in either a portfolio of bonds or a bond mutual fund, you’re going to realise higher levels of income going forward, and prospectively you could earn higher levels of returns going forward as well. So rising interest rates for the long-term investor is likely going to create a portfolio with more income and higher prospective returns.”
Asset managers on Wall Street could see their bonus pool rise as much as 10% this year, reports Elizabeth Dexheimer at Bloomberg. But fixed-income traders could see their bonuses fall 15%, according to Johnson Associates Inc. “This is really a sea change,” Alan Johnson, founder and managing director of the Johnson Associates told Dexheimer. “It’s been coming and coming and now it’s finally apparent that the largest paychecks don’t come from Wall Street banks.” Declining fixed income trading activity hurt banks in the first quarter.
Jeff Gundlach’s Crazy Treasury Market Prediction Has Been Spot On (Business Insider)
With the Federal Reserve tapering its asset purchase program and expected to tighten monetary policy, many are expecting the bull market to end. But earlier this year, when the 10-year was at about 3%, DoubleLine Capital’s Jeff Gundlach said the 10-year yield could fall as low as 2.5% in the near-term, while others were expecting it to rise to 3.4%. The 10-year hit a seven-month low of 2.52% on Wednesday. Meanwhile, DoubleLine Funds continues to see inflows even as other bond funds like PIMCO see outflows.
Morgan Stanley has picked Eric Benedict to lead its wealth management unit that is focused on clients with over $US20 million in investible assets. Benedict will take over from Doug Ketterer, who was named head of strategy and client management earlier this year.
Nouriel Roubini Just Presented A New List Of Risks To The Global Economy (Business Insider)
Economist Nouriel Roubini presented six rising global risks at the SALT Las Vegas hedge fund conference on Wednesday. 1. A Chinese bumpy landing – “Some people believe in a hard landing… some people believe in a softer landing,” said Roubini. “I worry about a bumpy, tougher landing.” Roubini expects growth of 6% or less by 2016; 2. A Fed policy mistake — If the Fed exits QE too soon or sets the Fed Funds rate too high. 3. A “secular stagnation in advanced economies” – High debt and income inequality are weighing on consumption; 4. An expansionist Russia — “Putin is not just after Ukraine, he wants to create a Eurasian union,” said Roubini; 5. Rising tensions between Japan and China — “I was quite disturbed at the World Economic Forum… senior officials were talking about relations between China and Japan being like Britain and Germany before WWI.”
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