Latin American politics are also lurching to the right

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Latin American politics are also lurching to the right (Project Syndicate)

Latin American politics seem to be swerving to the right. Notably, this seems to be a product of the region’s “anemic growth and the disappointing provision of public goods, especially social services,” writes Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz.

“Indeed, we can think of the shift as a Latin American variant of the West’s blossoming romance with anti-establishment movements,” he continued. “Viewed from a global perspective, the shift in Latin America is part of a broader rise in discontent with the ‘establishment.’ And it is not limited to governments. It also extends to private-sector elites, particularly banks and multinational companies.”

Millennials might be sabotaging their own retirement (The Motley Fool)

A new study from Financial Finesse found that millennials — who they defined as anyone under the age of 30 — have a Wellness Score of just 4.4. And any score between a 3.0 and a 4.9 demonstrates that “employees may be sabotaging their own goals through poor personal financial skills and are in need of more basic information.”

The study also found some pretty crazy data points about millennials, including that only 59% understand the basics of investing, only 32% know their own risk tolerance, and only 23% have used a retirement calculator.

Maybe the slowdown in job growth just reflects the maturity of the business cycle (Charles Schwab)

“A recent 42-year low in initial unemployment claims and record job openings belie the weakness in job growth last month. Consumer confidence has also remained healthy; with the Conference Board’s monthly survey of showing the percentage of respondents saying jobs are plentiful remaining near a cyclical high of more than 24%. What may be at work is a yawning skills gap between all of those unfilled jobs and available workers,” wrote Liz Ann Sonders.

“Perhaps the simplest of benign explanations for the slowdown in job growth is the maturity of the cycle. Inevitably in every economic cycle, employment eventually approaches full maturity — we may be closer to that point than many have believed. It’s also possible the productivity gap is beginning to narrow; which could mean US gross domestic product (GDP) continues to plod along; but real wages picking up more sharply and employment growth slowing further.”

UBS says the chance of a US recession next year is the highest it’s been since the credit crisis (Bloomberg)

The UBS credit-based recession probability index suggests that there’s a 34% likelihood of a recession by the first quarter of 2017 — and that probability can spike to 50% if the Fed ends up quickly raising rates, reports Emma Orr, citing UBS Group AG.

“The biggest risk right now does come from Fed rate hikes amid a period of weak growth data,” UBS strategist Stephen Caprio told Bloomberg in a phone interview. “The worst case is, you have a replay of 2015, where you have a tighter Fed, stronger dollar, oil prices take another leg down into the $30s and concerns over emerging markets and China flare up again — that’s going to lead to mutual-fund redemptions.”

The 10 safest states in America (WalletHub)

WalletHub’s latest study suggests that the 10 safest states in the US are Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Maine, Connecticut, Minnesota, Virginia, Utah, and Iowa.

Their data shows that New Hampshire has the lowest number of murders and non-negligent manslaughter per 100,000 residents at 0.90 — which is 18 times lower than the District of Columbia, which had the highest rate of 15.94.

Meanwhile, Vermont has the lowest number of thefts per 100,000 residents at 1,535. That’s four times lower than highest in the country D.C. at 5,713.

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