Turbulence in emerging markets, worries about China, poor weather, and geopolitical issues in Ukraine may have made the start of 2014 rather cooky for global markets, but the U.S. is still in a “steady, mid-cycle” trend, according to Fidelity.
“While a solid 2014 U.S. economic outlook became the market consensus in the latter half of 2013, the stability in the U.S. outlook is an additional advantage relative to many other areas,” writes Fidelity’s Dirk Hofschire. “China has maintained a relatively fast pace of growth, but late- cycle trends amid high credit imbalances represent significant downside risk. We continue to be concerned that Japan’s April consumption tax could create a negative demand shock in the region, making Asia’s cyclical outlook more ambiguous.”
Here’s Fidelity’s chart showing where various country’s stand in the business cycle:
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