DAVID ZERVOS: This Is The Key Chart You Need To Watch This Week

David Zervos

Photo: Bloomberg TV

This is going to be a pretty stacked week for news. One of the big events will be the Fed’s two-day meeting that will be on Tuesday and Wednesday.Nobody expects further easing to be announced on Wednesday, but there will likely be hints about future policy moves.

Those hints will come from Bernanke, during his Wednesday afternoon conference. They will also come from the Fed governor’s projections about the future path of the economy and monetary policy.

Jefferies’ David Zervos writes:

This week we will see the release of the FOMC’s “Summary of Economic Projections” – the SEP. While there will be the usual focus on GDP, PCE and the U-rate, the key charts for the market will be the newly generated “Appropriate Timing of Policy Firming” and the “Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming”.

These charts will give us hints about how the FOMC member see the economy, and whether they’re still sticking to the 2014 target for the next rate hike.

This is really the key chart… will so many FOMC members be commited to the 2014 timing for the next rate hike.


Read more from Zervos and Jefferies economists at Markit Hub >

This is the Fed's latest outlook for GDP through 2014 and beyond.

This is the Fed's current unemployment outlook

The Fed's PCE inflation outlook

This is the Fed's core inflation outlook

The crucial chart: The range of estimates for when the next rate hike will be

The long term goal for interest rates

The FOMC's real GDP estimates for 2012

The FOMC's real GDP estimates for 2013

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