The US Federal Reserve just released their long-awaited statement on monetary policy, and the zero-interest rate era continues.
In addition to the policy decision statement, we also got an updated idea of what the Fed thinks rates should look like in the near future.
The “dot plot,” part of the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections released along with the policy decision statement, shows where each participant in the meeting thinks the federal funds rate should be at the end of the year for the next few years and in the longer run.
While the “dot plot” is not an official policy tool, it provides some insight into how the committee members feel about economic and monetary conditions going forward.
The new dot plot shows a much more dovish view of future rates than the last release in June. The median FOMC member sees rates staying between just 0.25% and 0.5% at the end of 2015, suggesting at most one rate hike by the end of the year. This is also lower than in June, when the median member saw rates between 0.5% and 0.75%.
Interestingly, one member actually sees slightly negative rates at the end of 2015 and 2016.
Here’s the new dot plot:
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