Marc Faber made a characteristically bold statement today, following up his championing of India over China.
He claims china’s managed ‘soft landing’ has as much as a 30% chance of simply crashing.
Which means that industrial commodities, which make up the vast majority of commodities, have a 30% of crashing as well…
Last year, total loans by banks have increased by a quarter of GDP. In addition to this they have large excess capacities across industries. I expect the Chinese economy to slow down considerably. The bigger question is that, will it crash? To that my answer is, yes, that is also possible. If you look at the economic history of the US from the year 1800 to year 2000, they had lot of ups and down caused by financial crisis, economic crisis, Civil War, World War One and the Great Depression and so on. We expected to have a big setback in China, which I think is quite possible. I think there is 99 per cent possibility that China will slow down considerably and I would say there is 30 per chance that it will crash. Also if growth in China slows down, it will have devastating impact on the industrial commodity prices and also on those who supply these commodities.