that four people can have an outsized hand in determining who wins the election in November.
They are German Chancellor Angela Merkel, President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, Speaker John Boehner, and Federal Reserve head Ben Bernanke.
His theory goes like this: because European Banks are so intertwined with the U.S. and global economy, if Merkel and Draghi work to save the European Monetary Union, confidence will rise, the economic mood will brighten considerably and Barack Obama will be re-elected. If not, it worsens and Romney is inaugurated.
On this side of the Atlantic, Klein believes that Boehner holds the whip-hand, because of the oncoming fiscal cliff, when Congress and the White House need to work out simultaneous deals on raising the debt ceiling, government spending, and lowering taxes.
Lastly, because he has the authority to act unilaterally, Klein points to Bernanke as someone who can change the election.
There is a lot of merit to this line of thinking, though we can’t help but feel that there are other enormous factors at play.
And even if the economy is still sputtering, Obama can still win by making voters afraid that a Romney presidency will mean cuts to Medicare, which so many seniors and soon-to-be retired workers see as their only financial salvation.
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