Hold on to your hats folks.
According to Andrew Adams, market strategist at Raymond James, there is the perfect mix of conditions that could send stocks on a ride up, up, and up.
“So what happens when the market keeps going up and much of that money starts to flow back into stocks as investors scramble to get back in once fear of missing out takes over?” asked Adams.
“This ‘dry powder’ on the sidelines could possibly force an explosion higher, assuming we don’t get anything major that comes out of nowhere, and it looks like the match may have already been lit given yesterday’s continuation move of Tuesday’s strong rally.”
Adams has two reason to believe the move will happen. For one, he is of the opinion that the market is still in the midst of a long-term upward trend.
“Which is consistent with our view that we remain in the secular bull market that has been in place since the 2009 bottom and a big reason why we still believe there is upside left in stocks,” wrote Adams.
For another, Adams said there are fifteen conditions that mark a short-term market bottom. Not the least of which is the terribly negative sentiment of investors.
Adams noted that despite $33 billion flowing out of the stock market, the indices sit within shouting distance of all-time highs.
- “An IPO market that has dried up completely.”
- “S&P earnings hitting a bottom and turning higher. (Dollar drop/rising oil stimulant)”
- “A mass exodus from retail investors (dumb money) as they dump their funds.”
- “Our ‘friends’ at our investment banks tell us to sell stocks.”
- “Zero market speculation in penny/micro-cap, Bio’s/speculative stocks.”
- “Households at multi-decade lows in terms of stock ownership.”
- “Retail investor bullishness under 24%.”
- “A stretched bond market as investors seek the ‘safe haven’ status of bonds.”
- “Longer-term put/call ratios at extremes (investors seeking downside protection).”
- “Warren Buffett buying stocks hand over fist after highest cash balance ever last year.”
- “Widespread blogger bearishness (dumb money).”
- “Speculative ‘high beta’ stocks massively underperforming ‘safe’ low betas.”
- “Leading indicator semiconductors turning around first.”
- “Retail investors (Mum, Pop, Joe 6 Pack, Uber driver, etc.) becoming experts on and actively touting ‘Death Crosses’ and ‘Head and Shoulder’ patterns.”
- “The media promoting financial negativity.”
Add all of this up, and there’s only one way to go — up. And looking at the early action on Thursday, Adams said it looks like the thesis is holding so far.
“Futures this morning are also pointed higher, so it certainly seems the bulls are back in control and the former high may just be the first target,” he said.
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