As predicted by Business Insider, statistics firm Autodata Corp. is calling the February seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales at 15.1 million units for the U.S. auto industry.
Earlier in the afternoon, Business Insider forecast the rate for February would come in at 15.1 million, a substantial jump from January’s 14.1 million pace.
With most automakers having now reported February auto sales, it appears that U.S. auto sales could push through a key barrier not passed since 2008: The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales may top 15 million for the month of February.
Just based on raw numbers (from GM, Toyota, Ford, and everyone else…), total unit sales in the U.S. will likely top 1.14 million.
But that’s not the number people care about. What gets announced is the Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR). This number is determined by various groups including Autodata Corporation. Bloomberg also calculates their own number.
Since it’s seasonally adjusted, you have to look at how the firms extrapolate February data.
So, Business Insider tracked February units sold over the past decade along with the SAAR rate reported following at the end of day.
Using those two points, we constructed the average number with which February units were multiplied by to get SAAR. It turns out, the number is 13.2057. With that, and a projection that 1,139,398 units will move through dealers in the month, Business Insider forecasts the annualized sales rate will hit 15.11 million.
If so, this will top estimates, which have ranged from about 14 to 14.4 million.
This February sales period also includes an extra day because of the Leap Year, which occurred in 2008 and 2004 (included in the data set). If the multiple would take further depression than modelled, SAAR would come in around 15.07 million.
Below, a look at the past 10 years of data:
Photo: Eric Platt/Business Insider, Data: Federal Reserve/Bloomberg
Below, total sales by automaker.
- General Motors: 209,306 units
- Ford Motor: 179,119 units
- Toyota Motor: 159,423 units
- Chrysler Group: 133,521 units
- Honda Motor: 110,157 units
- Nissan Motor: 106,731 units
- Hyundai: 51,151 units
- Kia: 45,038 units
- Volkswagen: 30,303 units
- BMW: 26,184 units
- Mazda: 25,651 units
- Fuji Heavy (Subaru): 25,374 units
- Daimler (Mercedes-Benz): 19,679 units
- Audi: 8,531 units
- Geely (Volvo): 5,263 units
- Mitsubishi: 4,736 units
- Tata Motor (Jaguar, Land Rover): 4,277 units