The huge event this week is the Federal Reserve’s 2-day meeting, which will conclude with a policy statement, an updated economic forecast, and a Ben Bernanke press conference on Wednesday.
This is one of the most anticipated meetings in a long time, as everyone wants to know if the Fed will give any hints at all about pulling back on Quantitative Easing. The increase in interest rates hints that the market believes the Fed might.
But while the Fed may be getting antsy and eager to begin the exit process, it’s not as if the economy is that good. Job creation is still meh by historical standards, as full employment remains a long way away.
And the inflation side of the dual-mandate is still missing massively… and unlike employment going in the wrong direction.
In last night’s Bedtimg with BTIG note, Dan Greenhaus (@danBTIG) included this chart, which shows that every single measure of inflation is low and falling.
Despite the firming economy, prices just keep dropping, which has to be alarming for a Fed worried about fighting deflation.
Ben Bernanke has to be looking at this chart, and worrying that walking towards the door might be premature.
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