As the dust settles in Europe, European banks are realising that there’s no way Greece can stay solvent, according to Der Spiegel.
The EBRD’s Thomas Mirow tells Süddeutsche Zeitung: “It is doubtful that Greece will be able to bear a debt ratio of more than 150 per cent over the long term. The markets have been pricing in a debt restructuring for some time. The ratio should be lowered to 100 per cent so that the country can overcome its problems.”
Meanwhile a group of leading economists just came to the same conclusion in a new report. The EEAG report says a default or bailout will be necessary in June 2013:
The question is: What will happen if, as we expect, Greece’s problems will not be resolved by 2013, in particular if the huge current account deficit is still unsustainable? Apart from a debt moratorium, which we discuss below, there are in principle only three options.
i) Greece returns to the drachma and depreciates (external depreciation)
ii) Greece goes through an equally radical internal depreciation process during which wages and prices fall by the same amount relative to the rest of the euro area as they would have done with an external depreciation.
iii) The European Union finances the Greek current account deficit with ongoing transfer programmes.
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