One of the biggest stories of the year has been the migration crisis in Europe.
Although it’s difficult to get the exact numbers as some people may have passed into Europe undetected, over 980,000 people have claimed asylum in 2015 to date, according to data from Eurostat, cited by BBC.
Notably, this migration crisis is set to grossly change the demographic stats in Europe as huge numbers of young people from emerging markets migrate into developed EU nations.
For example: Germany’s working-age population was forecast to fall by 4 million over the next decade, but now they are expected to take in 800,000 asylum seekers and refugees this year, totaling about 1% of Germany’s estimated population.
Additionally, Sweden’s population is expected to grow 3% by the end of 2016 due to the influx of migrants, “having huge repercussions for growth in the near term,” which HSBC’s James Pomeroy noted earlier.
In a recent note to clients, Goldman Sachs’ Sumana Manohar shared a chart that really gives a sense of how drastically Europe’s demographics could change going forward:
The blue demographic pyramid shows the nationals population, while the black demographic pyramid shows the non-nationals population.
The most striking thing about the chart is just how large the young population of non-nationals is — especially when you compare it to the fact that the population of nationals is ageing and shrinking. So going forward, the huge influx of migrants, theoretically, could both keep European populations from shrinking dramatically, and could also influence the future generations.
But another stunning thing about this chart is that the data is from 2014 — meaning that these population pyramids don’t even include the huge influx of young people who came into the EU during the recent migration crisis.
One important thing to note here, however, is that people who fall into the “non-nationals” category could still be European. Some of the migrants who enter developed EU countries happen to come from non-EU European countries (i.e. someone from Serbia may have migrated into Germany.)