The European Commission just released its forecasts for growth in Europe, one of its bi-annual outlooks. We knew it wasn’t going to be pretty. Here’s how bad it’s gotten:
- Inflation is set to be 0.5% this year, and 0.8% next year. Even in 2016, it will only rise to 1.5%, still far from the ECB’s 2% target
- Germany will grow by just 1.3% this year, and 1.1% in 2015
- France will grow by 0.3% this year, barely out of recession at all, and 0.7% next year
- Overall growth for the eurozone expected to come in at 1.1% this year, down from the 1.7% expected in the Spring forecast
- Italy will register a recession this year, with growth down 0.4%
- France’s government deficit isn’t going to fall to the eurozone’s 3% target. The Commission is forecasting a 4.4% deficit this year, climbing to 4.5% next year and 4.7% in 2016.
Here’s the full table of forecasts:
Twitter’s Econhedge notes that these are less rosy than the European Central Bank forecasts: the Commission has eurozone growth 0.5 percentage points lower in 2015, and inflation 0.3 percentage points lower.
More on this as it comes out.
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