There might not be a Brexit after all and the pound is jumping

Sterling is popping on Monday after several polls over the weekend showed the campaign to leave the EU losing momentum and the Remain camp gaining support with just days until the referendum.

A poll for the Mail on Sunday by Survation gave the In campaign 45% of the vote against 42% for Out. A separate poll for the Sunday Times by YouGov had Remain at 44% to Leave’s 43%, and an Opinium poll for the Observer put the two sides neck and neck at 44%.

The results are a stark contrast to multiple polls last week that gave the Leave camp as much as a 6 point lead, leading to fears that Britain was hurtling towards a “Brexit” — a British exit from the European Union. That sent the pound and British stocks tumbling.

But the pound is enjoying a relief rally on Monday after the polling swing. Sterling is up 1.62% against the dollar to 1.4591 at 7.25 a.m. BST (2.25 a.m. ET). If it hangs on to the gains the pound will have its best session since October 2009 when it jumped 1.8% in a day.

The pound is also up 2.20% against the Japanese Yen and the Euro is diving against the pound, down 0.93% to 0.7779.

Britain will go to the polls to vote on EU membership on Thursday, June 23. HSBC warns clients in a note on Monday that if the poll swing turns out to be unfounded and a Brexit does happen the pound could fall as much as 15% against the dollar amid “a global risk-off move in markets.”

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