A whole host of countries are susceptible to leaving the European Union if Britain votes for a Brexit on June 23, says Morgan Stanley in its latest research note.
Greg Case and Jackie Ineke at Morgan Stanley put together an intricate table, entitled “EU Exit Scorecard: Where Might Exit Pressure Emerge Next?” in their new report, which is designed to show, in order, the countries most likely to pip for an exit from the 28 nation bloc.
Their rankings take into account polling information from the European Commission Eurobarometer, as well as data from the Eurostat, Britain’s HM Treasury, Danmarks Nationalbank, and the European Commission to find out which nations are most likely to try and follow the UK if voters opt for a Brexit.
Here is the scorecard:
This isn’t the first time Morgan Stanley has warned against the “Brexit contagion” — in March, it released another huge report which said (emphasis ours):
In the event of a Brexit, its implications would reach well beyond the UK to the rest of Europe. Some countries look more exposed than others, but the overall impact would be negative for growth, negative for the euro, and negative for European equity markets.
Brexit would open a lengthy period of uncertainty. The initial equity market reaction would be negative, currency markets volatile, and investment may take a hit.
The trading relationship the UK has with the rest of the EU will not be as beneficial, as ‘free’, as it is at present. This, and the lengthy period of uncertainty around the exit negotiation will have taken its toll on UK growth and dampened demand for eurozone goods.
The latest poll by Ipsos MORI for the Evening Standard has given a massive 18-point lead to Remain with just over a month go to — its biggest lead for three months.
According to the poll published on Wednesday, 55% of respondents said they intended to vote for Britain to remain in the EU, compared to just 37% who plan to back a Brexit.