MORGAN STANLEY: These 4 charts show how ‘Brexit’ could be more likely than people think

ISS europe night
Waving at Europe Tim Peake/ NASA

The June 23 EU referendum is the biggest event in the political calendar.

Looking at the polls, Morgan Stanley analysts Jacob Nell and Melanie Baker estimate there’s a 40% chance of a Brexit in June.

But while it’s slightly more likely that the UK votes to stay in the European Union, Morgan Stanley has picked up on a few trends that could scupper that.

They see the result as close run because of several built-in beliefs that separate Brits from continental Europeans.

Here are the charts that should make the Remain campaign nervous.

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title=”Only Austria and Greece, which has battled with Eurozone member states over its sovereign debt, see Brussels in a more negative light than the UK.”
content=””
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/57178404dd0895331e8b45b1″
source=”Morgan Stanley”
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[slide
permalink=”/#the-majority-of-people-in-the-uk-see-themselves-as-british-first-and-european-second-2″
title=”The majority of people in the UK see themselves as British first and European second.”
content=””
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/57178404dd0895331e8b45b2″
source=”Morgan Stanley”
caption=””
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[slide
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title=”The Leave campaign is seen as stronger on immigration, which has become a key concern for voters.”
content=””
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/57178404dd0895331e8b45b3″
source=”Morgan Stanley”
caption=””
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[slide
permalink=”/#brits-have-become-increasingly-sceptical-about-europe-in-the-past-few-years-4″
title=”Brits have become increasingly sceptical about Europe in the past few years.”
content=””
image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/57178404dd0895331e8b45b4″
source=”Morgan Stanley”
caption=””
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