MORGAN STANLEY: These 4 charts show how 'Brexit' could be more likely than people think

ISS europe nightTim Peake/ NASAWaving at Europe

The June 23 EU referendum is the biggest event in the political calendar.

Looking at the polls, Morgan Stanley analysts Jacob Nell and Melanie Baker estimate there’s a 40% chance of a Brexit in June.

But while it’s slightly more likely that the UK votes to stay in the European Union, Morgan Stanley has picked up on a few trends that could scupper that.

They see the result as close run because of several built-in beliefs that separate Brits from continental Europeans.

Here are the charts that should make the Remain campaign nervous.

Only Austria and Greece, which has battled with Eurozone member states over its sovereign debt, see Brussels in a more negative light than the UK.

Morgan Stanley

The majority of people in the UK see themselves as British first and European second.

Morgan Stanley

The Leave campaign is seen as stronger on immigration, which has become a key concern for voters.

Morgan Stanley

Brits have become increasingly sceptical about Europe in the past few years.

Morgan Stanley

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