Last week, President Obama mentioned signing a free trade agreement with the European Union in his state of the union address.As with anything, the benefits of such an agreement comes with its costs.
Morgan Stanley commodities analyst Adam Longson believes that the this is the path to higher natural gas prices.
Longson writes in a note today that opening up a new market would be a boon for natgas producers as prices rise with the new demand.
This means higher costs for consumers who rely on natgas (currently at $3.25/mmBtu) for things like heating and cooking.
It would also change the trajectory of some pipeline projects:
At today’s European prices, US natural gas could rise as high as $5.70/mmBtu before closing the trans-Atlantic LNG export arb (i.e. the exchange rate setttlement — ed). We believe a new FTA has the potential to alter the timeline and destination for some LNG exports projects. We view East Coast projects, like Dominion’s Cove Point, as the greatest beneficiaries.
Longson says there’s also the potential for expanded oil exports. However, the impact on U.S. light sweet crude would not be as dramatic.