The Energy Information Administration (run by the Energy department) just released its initial Annual Energy Outlook for 2013.
The big news: the agency sees Brent spot prices declining to $96 into 2015 — but then exploding to $163 in 2040.
Here’s the chart:
[credit provider=”EIA” url=”http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/pdf/0383er(2013).pdf”]
And here are their assumptions:
- Average economic growth of 1.8 per cent per year for major U.S. trading partners
- Average annual economic growth in other U.S. trading partners of 4.0 per cent
- Declining liquid fuels consumption per unit of GDP
- The OPEC market share of total liquid fuels production remains at approximately 40 to 45 per cent over the projection period
- Production from non-OPEC countries increases to levels above those in last year’s annual energy outlook