Emerging market (EM) currencies are soaring after the Federal Reserve’s shock decision to refrain from tapering its quantitative easing program of monthly bond buying yesterday.
Treasuries rallied aggressively, forcing rates lower in the United States, which also flowed through to EM.
“EM is the asset class which suffered most from the ‘taper talk’ and is the one which is bouncing most as the removal of stimulus is delayed,” says Société Générale strategist Kit Juckes. “Of course, ‘delayed’ is not the same as ‘removed’ and that will matter in due course but for now, relief just goes on. I am most comfortable with the more US-sensitive growth stores and currencies and USD/MXN, which has been falling for two weeks now, can head towards 12. [The Indonesian rupiah] has more room to rally than [the Indian rupee] or [the South African rand], too.”
The best-performing currency against the dollar today is the Malaysian ringgit (USD/MYR is down 2.6%).
The next-best performers are the Indian rupee (USD/INR down 2.5%), the Chilean peso (USD/CLP down 1.9%), and the Russian ruble (USD/RUB down 1.8%).
However, the dollar is still rising against some of the most high-profile EM currencies of the recent sell-off, including the Turkish lira, South Africa rand, and the Brazilian real.
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