While initial jobless claims have been just ‘flat to slightly down’ this year, Scott Grannis at Calafia Beach Pundit highlights a marked improvement many commentators failed to mention after the release of today’s jobs data:
Emergency claims for extended unemployment insurance have dropped by 30% (about 1.75 million) since March. When we add those who continue to receive claims, we find that the number of people receiving some form of unemployment compensation insurance has dropped by 3 million since January (bottom chart). Undoubtedly many of those are feeling pretty badly right now, but some (almost a million) have new jobs, and some are going to be more inclined to find and accept a job, even if it means the pay doesn’t match their expectations.
The situation obviously remains pretty ugly, but for markets based on what will happen two steps into the future, inflection points are what matter since they forecast in which direction the data will change going forward. Visit CBP for more.