Research firm eMarketer is planning to knock “a few percentage points” off its already-lowered estimate for online ad spending, Bloomberg reports. It will be the firm’s third try at an estimate for the US online ad market: in November it predicted 28.5% growth to $27.5 billion, but lowered that in March, to $25.9 billion, representing 22.7% growth.
Further, analyst David Hallernan says eMarketer’s estimate of 16% growth in 2009 “is also probably too high.”
Why has 2008 stumped forecasters and media companies alike? It’s no secret: the weakening ad market has clouded normal visibility in the market. Here’s a rundown of the revisions so far:
- August 13: eMarketer plans to drop “a few percentage points” off its March estimate of 22.7% growth
- July 7: BMO Capital Markets cuts its 2008 U.S. forecast to 1.8% from 3.6%
- June 30: Zenith Optimedia cuts its U.S. ad forecast for the second time in three months
- May 30: Lehman drops 2008 U.S. online ad forecast from 24% growth to 23%
- March 19: eMarketer cuts its 2008 online ad forecast 6%
- September 14: Oppenheimer cuts 2008 U.S. online ad estimate 26% growth to 25%
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